2001—2023年京津冀植被覆盖度变化及其对极端气候的响应

Spatiotemporal variations in fractional vegetation cover and its response to extreme climate events in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (2001–2023)

  • 摘要: 在全球变暖背景下,极端气候事件发生的频率和强度不断增强.植被覆盖度(FVC)作为衡量生态系统的重要指标,对极端气候胁迫表现出复杂的时空响应.探究其响应特征,是提升区域生态系统适应性管理能力的关键.本文基于2001—2023年京津冀逐月最大合成 FVC 数据与 ERA5 再分析数据集,通过Sen趋势分析、相关分析、最优参数地理探测器及时滞与累积效应分析,揭示 FVC 与极端气候指数的时空演变及 FVC 对极端气候的时滞与累积响应特征,并比较了三大生态分区的差异化响应.结果表明:1)京津冀 FVC 多年平均值为0.61,研究区约56.74%的面积呈上升趋势,其中显著上升区域面积约占全域的36.34%.2)日最低温与连续干旱日数是影响 FVC 演变的主要因素(q>0.15);气候因子间具有交互增强效应,连续湿润日数和日最高温的组合解释力最高(q>0.42);3)空间响应特征:降雨类指数在西北地区以1个月滞后叠加1个月累积的复合响应为主;中部平原区多为2到3个月的长期累积;东部滨海区则以多月持续湿润累积为特征.气温类指数以累积效应为主,滞后响应局域化.

     

    Abstract: Amid ongoing global warming, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events have markedly increased. Fractional Vegetation Cover (FVC), a critical indicator of ecosystem health, exhibits complex =spatiotemporal dynamics under extreme climatic stress. Understanding these dynamics is essential for improving regional ecosystem management and resilience. This study analyzed monthly maximum-composite FVC data (2001–2023) for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, combined with ERA5 reanalysis datasets. Sen’s trend analysis, correlation analysis, optimal-parameter geographical detector models, and time-lag and accumulation effect analyses were employed to examine the spatiotemporal evolution of FVC and its delayed and cumulative responses to extreme climate indices across three ecological subregions. Results show that: (1) The multi-year mean FVC across the BTH region was 0.61. About 56.74% of the study area exhibited an upward trend in FVC, with 36.34% experiencing statistically significant increases. (2) Daily minimum temperature and consecutive dry days were identified as the main climatic drivers of FVC variation (q > 0.15). Climatic factors exhibited nonlinear and amplifying interactions, with the combination of consecutive wet days and daily maximum temperature showing the strongest explanatory power (q > 0.42). (3) Spatially, precipitation-related indices in the northwestern subregion were characterized by a combined 1-month lag and 1-month accumulation effect; the central plain exhibited a dominant 2–3-month accumulation effect; and the eastern coastal zone exhibited persistent multi-month wet accumulation. Temperature-related indices primarily acted through cumulative effects, with lagged responses that were spatially localized.

     

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