我国露水发生频率时空演变规律分析

Analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution of dew occurrence frequency in China

  • 摘要: 露水是区域水资源的重要补充,对生态与水文过程具有重要作用,特别是在水资源短缺的干旱地区和干旱时期.然而,现有露水研究相对匮乏,且集中于局部地区和短时间序列.因此,本研究基于中国628个站点的露水长期观测数据和由随机森林模型重构的1980—2018年全国模拟数据,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Theil-Sen斜率估计、Benjamini-Hochberg等方法,在站点和全国尺度上准确刻画中国及不同气候分区露水频率的时空演变特征.结果表明:1)露水频率在年际呈现显著下降趋势.站点尺度减少速率为−0.54 d·a−1,全国尺度减少速率为−0.23天/年,减少区域占全国陆地总面积的35%;2)露水频率在年内呈现明显的季节性变化,表现为月度分布的不均和时间变化趋势的差异.具体来说,露水集中在5至10月,露水频率显著减少的月份集中在4至9月;3)露点温度是影响露水形成的重要因素,而风速、高程等因素对露水形成起辅助调节作用;4)各气候分区的露水频率均以下降为主,其中水资源胁迫的干旱区最为敏感.干旱区平均露水频率为66 d,显著减少面积占干旱区总面积的41.70%,整体减少速率为−0.16 d·a−1.由此可见,干旱区可利用的非降水水源进一步减少,区域水资源压力持续加大,生态系统风险同步上升,给水资源调节与管理带来严峻挑战.

     

    Abstract: Dew serves as a vital supplement to regional water resources and plays a significant role in the ecological and hydrological processes, particularly in arid regions and during drought periods. However, existing research on dew is limited, with a primary focus on localized areas and short-term time series. Therefore, this study utilizes dew frequency observations from 628 stations across China and nationwide reconstructed dew frequency data derived from a Random Forest model to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of dew frequency across China and within different climatic zones. Results indicate: 1) Dew frequency exhibits a significant decreasing trend. The decreasing rate at the station scale is -0.54 days per year, while the decreasing rate at the national scale is -0.23 days per year, with decreasing areas covering 35% of total national land area. 2) Dew frequency demonstrates pronounced seasonal variations within the year, manifested as uneven monthly distribution and divergent temporal trends. Specifically, dew occurs predominantly from May to October, peaking in August, while months with significant decrease in dew frequency cluster from April to September. 3) Dew point temperature, representing air humidity conditions, is the key factor influencing dew formation. While topographic dynamic conditions such as wind speed and elevation exert a certain regulatory effect on dew formation. 4) Dew frequency decreases across all climate zones, with water-stressed arid zones being the most sensitive. The arid zone has an average dew frequency of 66 days, with areas experiencing significant decrease covering 41.70% of its total area and the decreasing rate of -0.16 days per year. Consequently, the availability of non-precipitation water sources in arid zones is further decreasing, regional water stress is increasing, and ecosystem risks are intensifying simultaneously, posing severe challenges to water resource regulation and management.

     

/

返回文章
返回