中国水资源-能源-粮食-碳排放压力格局演变与压力网络属性研究

Research on the evolution of pressure pattern and pressure network attributes of water-energy-food-carbon emissions in China

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化与经济转型背景下,水资源-能源-粮食-碳排放(WEFC)系统协同发展是区域可持续发展的核心命题.本研究基于2003—2022年中国30个省份面板数据,采用压力指数构建、重心迁移模型与复杂网络方法,分析WEFC系统压力时空变化特征、重心迁移规律及网络拓扑属性.结果表明:1)WEFC系统压力时空异质性显著,水资源与粮食压力波动下降,能源与碳排放压力持续上升,WEFC综合压力呈“东部与中西部工业省偏高、西南省份偏低”分布格局,区域差异逐渐收敛;2)水资源压力重心围绕黄淮地区边缘呈跳跃式波动,能源压力重心“东北向集聚”后趋于稳定,粮食压力重心呈现“西南微调-东北加速-小幅回调”特征,碳排放重心稳定向西南迁移,WEFC综合压力重心空间波动范围较小且呈小幅西南偏移,迁移过程受资源禀赋、产业转移、政策调控等多重因素驱动;3)WEFC4个要素及综合压力网络小世界指数由大到小排序为水资源(4.74)、WEFC(2.57)、粮食(1.73)、能源(1.48)、碳(1.08),表明水资源压力的跨区域传导性最强,碳排放压力的区域独立性最强.广东、浙江、江苏、河南为WEFC综合压力网络中的关键节点,其WEF资源优化配置与碳减排调控可有效阻断压力级联扩散,为全国WEFC系统协同治理提供支撑.

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of global climate change and economic transformation, the coordinated development of the water-energy-food-carbon emissions (WEFC) system is the core proposition of regional sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022, this study adopted the pressure index construction, the center of gravity migration model and the complex network method to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of pressure, the center of gravity migration law and the network topological attributes of the WEFC system. The results show that: 1) The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the WEFC system pressure is significant. The pressure of water resources and food fluctuates and decreases, while the pressure of energy and carbon emissions continues to rise. The comprehensive pressure of WEFC presents a distribution pattern of “higher in eastern and central and western industrial provinces and lower in southwestern provinces”, and regional differences gradually converge. 2) The pressure center of water resources fluctuates in a jumping pattern around the edge of the Huanghuai region. The pressure center of energy has “concentrated in the northeast” and then stabilized. The pressure center of food shows the characteristics of “minor adjustment in the southwest-acceleration in the northeast-slight correction”. The pressure center of carbon emissions has steadily shifted to the southwest. The spatial fluctuation range of the comprehensive pressure center of WEFC is small and shows a slight southwest shift. The migration process is driven by multiple factors such as resource endowment, industrial transfer, and policy regulation. 3) The small-world index ranking of five networks is as follows: water resources (4.74) , WEFC (2.57) , food (1.73) , energy (1.48) , carbon (1.08), indicating that the cross-regional transmission of water resources pressure is the strongest, and the regional independence of carbon emission pressure is the strongest. Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Henan are key nodes in the WEFC comprehensive pressure network. The optimal allocation of WEF resources and carbon reduction regulation in these regions can effectively prevent the cascading spread of pressure, providing support for the collaborative governance of the national WEFC system.

     

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