Research on the evolution of pressure pattern and pressure network attributes of water-energy-food-carbon emissions in China

Against the backdrop of global climate change and economic transformation, the coordinated development of the water-energy-food-carbon emissions (WEFC) system is the core proposition of regional sustainable development． Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2022, this study adopted the pressure index construction, the center of gravity migration model and the complex network method to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of pressure, the center of gravity migration law and the network topological attributes of the WEFC system． The results show that: 1) The spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the WEFC system pressure is significant． The pressure of water resources and food fluctuates and decreases, while the pressure of energy and carbon emissions continues to rise． The comprehensive pressure of WEFC presents a distribution pattern of “higher in eastern and central and western industrial provinces and lower in southwestern provinces”, and regional differences gradually converge． 2) The pressure center of water resources fluctuates in a jumping pattern around the edge of the Huanghuai region． The pressure center of energy has “concentrated in the northeast” and then stabilized． The pressure center of food shows the characteristics of “minor adjustment in the southwest-acceleration in the northeast-slight correction”． The pressure center of carbon emissions has steadily shifted to the southwest． The spatial fluctuation range of the comprehensive pressure center of WEFC is small and shows a slight southwest shift． The migration process is driven by multiple factors such as resource endowment, industrial transfer, and policy regulation． 3) The small-world index ranking of five networks is as follows: water resources (4.74) , WEFC (2.57) , food (1.73) , energy (1.48) , carbon (1.08), indicating that the cross-regional transmission of water resources pressure is the strongest, and the regional independence of carbon emission pressure is the strongest． Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Henan are key nodes in the WEFC comprehensive pressure network． The optimal allocation of WEF resources and carbon reduction regulation in these regions can effectively prevent the cascading spread of pressure, providing support for the collaborative governance of the national WEFC system．