Risk analysis of new energy depletion based on copula functions

Based on the daily output data of wind power and solar power in winter from 2018 to 2023 in a certain region, this paper constructs a two-dimensional joint probability model of wind-solar power by selecting the optimal marginal distribution and copula functions． On this basis, the combined risk level of new energy depletion in different regions is quantitatively evaluated, and the joint and co-occurence return periods of depletion events are calculated． The experimental results indicate that the optimal marginal distributions and copula functions of wind and solar power vary significantly across different regions． The probability and frequency of individual depletion of wind power or solar power in each region are relatively high． In contrast, the probability of extreme coupling events with simultaneous depletion of both energy sources is lower, accompanied by a significantly lower occurrence frequency．