Trade-off impact of carbon-peak target of forest volume and economic development goals on land use/land cover in Fujian

In the context of global advocacy of sustainable development, China is striving to reach a peak in CO₂ emission before 2030． Land use change is closely related to carbon emissions and forest stock volume． Thus, it is necessary to balance and optimize land use under different development scenarios before carbon emission peaks． To achieve peaking in carbon emissions, Fujian is crucial because forest coverage rate there is the highest in all of China． But Fujian is also necessary for China’s economic growth． Future land use changes in Fujian are affected by a trade-off between carbon-peaking actions and economic development． Here CLUMondo model is used to explore optimal land use allocation under 3 scenarios: 1) ecological target scenario (maximizing ecological benefits, the forest stock volume is not lower than the target value), 2) economic target scenario (satisfying the land use status in 2030 under the economic development target, the forest area is not degraded) and 3) conventional coordinated target scenario (ecological and economic goals are developed steadily according to the current situation)． The CLUMondo model is found suitable for land use/land cover change simulation in Fujian province． To achieve economic development while maintaining existing forest area as much as possible in the future, Fujian province needs to improve forest management level, forest quality, forest ecological benefit compensation system． Fujian province should optimize urban development pattern and strengthen intensive development of urban, ecological functional areas．