Multi-scenario simulation of land change in the Pearl River Delta based on gravity model of urban comprehensive strength

How to use land resources reasonably has become an essential issue in the sustainable development of cities． Land-change simulations can provide rational suggestions for the use of land resources, as land-change simulation can predict land-use changes under different future scenarios． Practical tools for land-change simulations are land-change models． Among the many land-change models, CLUMondo has become popular in recent years． CLUMondo model characterizes the relationship between land-types and land-system services more realistically by allowing one land-type to provide multiple land-system services． CLUMondo model is widely used in global or regional land-change simulations． To enable CLUMondo model more comprehensively capture intercity interactions within urban agglomeration, we proposed a simulation method based on a gravity model of urban comprehensive strength． Specifically, CLUMondo model was integrated with urban gravity model． The results of urban gravity model were used as driving factors in land-change simulation of CLUMondo model． The Pearl River Delta was selected as the study area to evaluate the accuracy of the integrated model． The urban gravity model was found to better describe interactions between cities． Higher accuracy was achieved in CLUMondo model integrated with urban gravity model compared with CLUMondo model alone． This work provides a solution for expansion simulation of urban agglomeration and offers suggestions for sustainable development of urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta．