Multi-scenario simulation of land change in Pearl River Delta integrating CLUMondo and the urban gravity model

How to use land resources reasonably has become an essential issue in the sustainable development of cities. Land change simulation can provide reasonable suggestions on the use of land resources because land change simulation can predict land use changes in different scenarios in the future. The practical tools for land change simulation are land change models. Among many land change models, the CLUMondo model has become popular in recent years because it allows one land type to provide multiple land system services. The CLUMondo model characterizes the relationship between land types and land system services more realistically. The CLUMondo model is widely used in global or regional land change simulations. However, researchers ignore the interaction between cities when the CLUMondo model is applied to the expansion of urban agglomerations. We integrated the CLUMondo and urban gravity model. Specifically, the result of the urban gravity model is used as the driving factor to participate in the land change simulation of the CLUMondo model. Besides, we selected the Pearl River Delta as the case study area to verify the accuracy of the integrated model. The paper draws the following conclusions: 1) the urban gravity model can better describe the interaction between cities; 2) there is higher accuracy in the CLUMondo model integrated with the urban gravity model compared with the CLUMondo model. Th paper provides a solution for the expansion simulation of the urban agglomeration and suggestions for the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.