Runoff simulation and evolution attribution of typical tributaries of the Yellow River based on the VIC hydrological model

Climate changes and human activities both lead to changes in river runoff． Runoff of the Dahei River basin has shown significant downward trend in recent decades, threatening seriously sustainable development and utilization of regional water resources, and maintenance of ecosystem health． Analysis of runoff evolution and attribution is therefore conducted in this work, using observed runoff data from 4 typical hydrological stations in the Dahei River basin． The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to identify abrupt-change years in observed runoff sequences of the Dahei River basin． Abrupt-change year for runoff at Dianshangcun, Qixiaying, and Meidai hydrological stations was determined to be 1999, but for Sanliang hydrological station, it was 1995． The VIC hydrological model was constructed for the Dahei River basin． NSE and R² values of the model during calibration and validation periods were found both to be above 0.6, indicating good simulation performance for runoff． Hydrological simulation was established based on VIC model for attribution analysis of runoff changes． The dominant factor influencing runoff changes in the Dahei River basin was identified to be human activities, with a contribution rate ranging from 77.1% to 90.1%, whilst climate changes accounted for 9.9% to 22.9%． These data will help understand runoff evolution and responses to environmental changes in typical climate regions of the Yellow River basin．