Analysis of multi-dimensional water resource carrying capacity and diagnosis of obstacle degree in the Kuye River basin

Addressing the ecological fragility, frequent floods and droughts, and water supply-demand tensions in the Kuye River basin, this study established a tailored evaluation system comprising 22 representative indicators across three dimensions: water resources, socio-economy, and eco-environment． A combination of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and the entropy weight method was employed to determine subjective and objective weights, respectively． The TOPSIS model was then used to assess the dynamic evolution of multi-dimensional water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) from 2010 to 2023． Furthermore, the obstacle degree model was applied to identify key limiting factors． The results indicate that the overall WRCC in the basin exhibited a fluctuating upward trend during this period, with its status gradually transitioning from overloaded to weakly carrying． This improvement is primarily attributed to significant enhancements in the socio-economic and eco-environmental dimensions． The nine principal obstacles to WRCC were identified as: water supply modulus, ecological and environmental water use rate, water consumption per 10 000 yuan of GDP, drought index, water consumption per 10 000 yuan of industrial value-added, per capita water resources utilization, water area ratio, proportion of surface water sources, and forest coverage rate． The findings aim to provide decision-making support for promoting efficient water resource utilization, adjusting economic and industrial layouts, and optimizing the population structure in the basin．