Comprehensive Evaluation of the Coupled Water Resources-Water Environment-Socioeconomic System in the Muwen River Basin

The conflict between water resources, ecological environment, and economic development has become increasingly prominent. Coordinating watershed economic development with water resources and ecological environments is a critical task for achieving sustainable socio-economic development in China. This study conducts a comprehensive evaluation of the coupled water resources-water environment-economic society (WEE) system in the Muwen River Basin, aiming to promote their coordinated development and provide technical support for decision-making in basin planning. By constructing a multidimensional coupling evaluation system and integrating Moran’s I index with the PSO-SVR model, this research reveals the interactive evolution patterns of the WEE system in the Muwen River Basin in 2025, 2030, 2035. The results indicate: (1) Temporal evolution exhibits a declining trend characterized by "high coordination (pre-2012) → moderate coordination (2013–2016) → low coordination (2017) → moderate coordination (2019–2020),". (2) In spatial terms, areas with higher indices for the water-resource, water-environment, and socio-economic sub-systems are clustered in densely urbanized zones; the overall coordination of the coupled system peaked in 2015 and declined across all regions by 2020. (3) The obstacle-degree analysis reveals that chemical-fertilizer application intensity is the dominant influencing factor, and the most significant obstacles are largely concentrated within the water-environment sub-system. (4) Scenario predictions suggest that the water resources index will rise to 0.689 by 2035, while the water environment system will undergo a U-shaped restoration cycle. These findings not only provide direct technical guidance for sustainable development in the Muwen River Basin but also offer insights for green watershed governance.