Research on the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Against the backdrop of the "dual carbon" strategy and the requirements for the green and sustainable development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it is of great significance to clearly understand the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies and the realization of low-carbon development. Based on the data of carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic development of 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001 to 2021, this paper uses methods such as piecewise linear regression analysis, Tapio decoupling model, and LMDI model to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions. The results show that: ① From 2001 to 2021, carbon emissions increased from 1.181 billion tons to 3.737 billion tons. There was a significant breakpoint in the 11 provinces and municipalities during 2011-2013, showing a pattern of rapid growth followed by a gradual slowdown. Spatially, it presented a pattern of "east > central > west". ② During 2001-2021, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth showed a clear trend of "expansionary connection - weak decoupling - strong decoupling". ③ Economic output was the main driving factor for the growth of carbon emissions, while energy efficiency played a significant role in carbon emission reduction. In conclusion, the Yangtze River Economic Belt needs to enhance energy efficiency, accelerate the optimization of economic structure, and promote regional collaborative emission reduction to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development.