Carbon emission in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: spatio-temporal evolutions and their driving factors

The “dual carbon” strategy, green and sustainable development policies necessitate a clear understanding of spatio-temporal evolutions and their driving mechanisms for carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, to formulate effective policies for carbon emission reduction and realization of low-carbon development． Data of carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic development in 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001-2021 are subject to piecewise linear regression analysis, Tapio decoupling model, and LMDI model． Carbon emissions were found to have increased from 1.181 billion tons to 3.737 billion tons from 2001 to 2021． A significant breakpoint was found from 2011-2013, showing a pattern of rapid growth followed by gradual slowdown． A spatial pattern of “east > central > west” was identified． Decoupling between carbon emission and economic growth showed a clear trend of “expansionary connection-weak decoupling-strong decoupling” from 2001-2021． Economic output was found to be the main driving factor for increased carbon emissions, energy efficiency playing a significant role in the reduction of carbon emissions． Therefore enhanced energy efficiency, accelerated optimization in economic structure, promotion of regional collaborative reduction in emission are required to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt．