Simulating potential suitable habitat of Dasiphora fruticosa in China under future climate change with MaxEnt

Dasiphora fruticosa is a typical alpine deciduous shrub species widely distributed across high mountains and high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere; it plays a crucial role in soil and water conservation and in maintaining alpine ecological stability． Studying potential changes in suitable habitat of D. fruticosa under climate change conditions will help characterize alpine shrubland responses to future climatic conditions． A total of 19 climatic variables, 3 topographic variables, and 3 soil variables were selected as environmental predictors． A MaxEnt model was constructed using current (1961-2020) distribution points of D. fruticosa to identify the main environmental factors influencing its distribution． Potential future (during 2081-2100) distribution of D. fruticosa under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was simulated． This model achieved an AUC value of 0.901, indicating high predictive accuracy． The mean-temperature of warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and soil nutrient were found to be the main environmental factors influencing distribution of D. fruticosa． Suitable habitat of D. fruticosa is projected to decrease significantly during 2081-2100, with suitable habitat in the eastern regions nearly disappearing and distribution shifting westward to higher elevations, mainly concentrated on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and surrounding regions． This study clarifies the dominant environmental mechanisms governing distribution of D. fruticosa and warns of contraction of its distribution under future climate change; this will provide some scientific basis for priority conservation area planning and climate-adaptive management of D. fruticosa．