Simulating the potential suitable habitat of Dasiphora fruticosa in China under future climate change with the MaxEnt model

Dasiphora fruticosa is a typical alpine deciduous shrub species widely distributed across high mountains and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere． It plays a crucial role in soil and water conservation and in maintaining alpine ecological stability． Studying the potential changes in the suitable habitat of D. fruticosa under climate change helps to reveal the response characteristics of alpine shrublands to future climatic conditions． We selected 19 climatic variables, 3 topographic variables, and 3 soil variables as environmental predictors． A MaxEnt model was constructed using current (1961-2020) distribution points of D. fruticosa to identify the main environmental factors influencing its distribution． Furthermore, the potential future distribution of D. fruticosa under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for the 2081-2100 was simulated． The results showed that: (1) the model achieved an AUC value of 0.901, indicating high predictive accuracy; (2) the mean temperature of warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and soil nutrient were the main environmental factors influencing the distribution of D. fruticosa; (3) under all SSPs, the suitable habitat of D. fruticosa is projected to decrease significantly in the 2081-2100, with suitable habitat in the eastern regions nearly disappearing and the distribution shifting westward to higher elevations, mainly concentrated on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding regions． This study clarifies the dominant environmental mechanisms governing the distribution of D. fruticosa and warns of the contraction of its distribution under future climate change． It provides a direct scientific basis for priority conservation area planning and climate-adaptive management of D. fruticosa．