The impact and mechanism of industrial upgrading on urbanization in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration

To investigate the multidimensional effects, nonlinear characteristics and mechanisms of industrial upgrading in driving urbanization, this study conducts empirical analysis using panel data from nine prefecture-level cities in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2024, employing two-way fixed effects model, panel smooth transition regression model and mediation model. The results indicate that: Firstly, the impact of industrial upgrading on urbanization exhibits multidimensional differentiation, significantly promoting population, land and social urbanization. Secondly, industrial upgrading exhibits nonlinear characteristics in its impact on urbanization, with its driving effect on urbanization shifting from weak to strong once it reaches a certain level. Thirdly, industrial upgrading exerts a restraining effect on land urbanization by altering land use efficiency. This study aims to provide empirical evidence for the construction of new-type urbanization within the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration amid the ongoing process of industrial upgrading.