Methods for climate change risk assessment and their applicability in China

Climate change risk assessment provides an important scientific basis for understanding climate impacts, identifying adaptation priorities, and developing regional risk management strategies. Focusing on natural ecosystems and socioeconomic systems, this study compares existing assessment methods in terms of their core data requirements, applicable scales, and interpretive boundaries, according to three functional categories: risk identification and monitoring, impact and loss quantification, and systemic risk analysis and adaptation strategy support. The results indicate that relevant research has evolved from single-hazard assessment and static risk zoning toward analyses of coupled, compound, and cascading risks. The application of international assessment methods in China is mainly constrained by inconsistencies in data scales, insufficient localization of model parameters and socioeconomic scenarios, as well as limited analysis of cross-system risk propagation and weak integration with governance processes. Accordingly, this study proposes a regional assessment framework that starts from specific application contexts and takes regional risk chains as its organizing principle, integrating dynamic scenarios, tiered quantification, adaptation evaluation, and iterative updating. The proposed framework provides a methodological basis for differentiated climate change risk assessment across regions and risk categories.