祝培甜, 马永欢, 陈霈弦, 李蕾, 郭瑞雪. 中国耕地重心迁移特征及气候适宜性评价[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023231
引用本文: 祝培甜, 马永欢, 陈霈弦, 李蕾, 郭瑞雪. 中国耕地重心迁移特征及气候适宜性评价[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023231
ZHU Peitian, MA Yonghuan, CHEN Peixian, LI Lei, GUO Ruixue. Characteristics of the Migration of Cultivated Land Gravity Center and Evaluation of Its Climate Suitability in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023231
Citation: ZHU Peitian, MA Yonghuan, CHEN Peixian, LI Lei, GUO Ruixue. Characteristics of the Migration of Cultivated Land Gravity Center and Evaluation of Its Climate Suitability in China[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023231

中国耕地重心迁移特征及气候适宜性评价

Characteristics of the Migration of Cultivated Land Gravity Center and Evaluation of Its Climate Suitability in China

  • 摘要: 为了解中国耕地空间格局与气候适宜性变化,基于耕地、降水和气温数据,运用重心迁移模型和生态位模型,对中国耕地重心迁移变化特征及气候适宜性进行分析.结果表明:1)2010 — 2020 年,我国耕地重心向北迁移112 km,水田重心向东北迁移260 km,水浇地重心向西北迁移116 km,旱地重心向东北迁移90 km;2)耕地降水适宜性从我国东南向西北方向逐渐降低,积温适宜性从我国南方向北方逐渐降低,青藏高原积温适宜性程度最低,气候适宜性从我国东南向西北方面递减;3)水田的降水、积温和气候适宜性均为较适宜面积大,水浇地的降水和气候适宜性均为一般适宜面积大,积温适宜性为较适宜面积大,旱地的降水、积温和气候适宜性均为一般适宜面积大;4)耕地气候适宜性整体处于下降趋势,降水较适宜和不适宜耕地面积增加,极适宜和一般适宜耕地面积减少;积温极适宜和不适宜耕地面积增加,较适宜和一般适宜耕地面积减少;气候不适宜耕地面积增加,极适宜、较适宜和一般适宜耕地面积减少.建议严格保护耕地,尤其是水田等优质耕地,并根据气候条件开垦耕地和退耕,从而对耕地数量和质量进行综合保护.

     

    Abstract: In order to understand the spatial pattern of arable land and climate suitability changes in China, based on the data of cultivated land, precipitation and temperature, the change characteristics of cultivated land gravity center migration and climate suitability in China were analyzed using gravity center migration model and ecological niche model. The results showed that: (1) From 2010 to 2020, the center of gravity of cultivated land migrated 112km to the north, the center of gravity of paddy field migrated 260km to the northeast, the center of gravity of irrigated land migrated 116km to the northwest, and the center of gravity of dry land migrated 90km to the northeast. (2) The cultivated land precipitation suitability gradually decreased from southeast to northwest, the accumulated temperature suitability gradually decreased from south to north, and the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was the lowest, and the climate suitability gradually decreased from southeast to northwest. (3)The precipitation, accumulated temperature, and climate suitability of paddy fields are relatively large in area; The precipitation and climate suitability of irrigated land are generally large, while the suitability for accumulated temperature is relatively large; The precipitation, accumulated temperature, and climate suitability of dry land are generally suitable for a large area. (4)The climate suitability of cultivated land was on a downward trend. The area of relatively suitable and unsuitable farmland for precipitation increases, while the area of extremely suitable and generally suitable farmland for precipitation decreases; The area of cultivated land with extremely suitable and unsuitable accumulated temperature increases, while the area of cultivated land with relatively suitable and generally suitable accumulated temperature decreases; The unsuitable climate leads to an increase in arable land area, while the extremely suitable, relatively suitable, and generally suitable climate leads to a decrease in arable land area. It is suggested to strictly protect cultivated land, especially high quality cultivated land such as paddy fields, and cultivate or return cultivated land according to climatic conditions, so as to comprehensively protect the quantity and quality of cultivated land.

     

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