舒心怡, 徐宗学, 叶陈雷, 廖如婷, 黄亦轩, 王京晶, 贾书惠. 考虑空间异质性特征的城市洪涝动态风险分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023251
引用本文: 舒心怡, 徐宗学, 叶陈雷, 廖如婷, 黄亦轩, 王京晶, 贾书惠. 考虑空间异质性特征的城市洪涝动态风险分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023251
SHU Xinyi, XU Zongxue, YE Chenlei, LIAO Ruting, HUANG Yixuan, WANG Jingjing, JIA Shuhui. Dynamic Risk of Urban Flooding/Waterlogging Processes Considering Spatial Heterogeneity of Underlying Surface[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023251
Citation: SHU Xinyi, XU Zongxue, YE Chenlei, LIAO Ruting, HUANG Yixuan, WANG Jingjing, JIA Shuhui. Dynamic Risk of Urban Flooding/Waterlogging Processes Considering Spatial Heterogeneity of Underlying Surface[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023251

考虑空间异质性特征的城市洪涝动态风险分析

Dynamic Risk of Urban Flooding/Waterlogging Processes Considering Spatial Heterogeneity of Underlying Surface

  • 摘要: 城市洪涝问题给社会稳定和经济发展带来了严峻挑战,准确评估洪涝风险对于提高城市防洪排涝能力至关重要.本文以山西晋城市主城区为例,针对城市空间异质性构建SWICA模型,实现城市洪涝联合模拟,结合多源数据构建风险评估框架,采用主客观综合赋权法,进行不同降雨重现期下洪涝动态风险分析,主要结论如下:(1)地下管网排水能力在20 a一遇重现期降雨时接近饱和,重现期大于20 a时管网系统排水能力不足;随着降雨重现期的增大,主城区内危险性区域逐渐增加,多集中于道路、十字路口和开发程度较高的区域;(2)主城区东南部区域,降雨量在1 a至5 a重现期下区域危险性等级的提升较为显著;洪涝高风险范围随重现期的增大而增加,100 a比1 a增加了224.614 hm2;(3)同一降雨重现期下,高风险和较高风险区域大多集中在主城区中部开发程度较高的区域;主城区东北部植被覆盖较好,高程相对较高,属于低风险区域.

     

    Abstract: Frequent urban flooding/waterlogging has being made a great challenge to the stability of society and development of economics. Accurate estimation of flood risk is very important for the improvement of urban flood control and drainage capacity. The downtown area of Jincheng City in Shanxi Province was selected as the study area, and the SWICA model was developed to jointly simulate the flooding/waterlogging processes in this study. A risk assessment framework was proposed on the basis of multi-source data, in which both subjective and objective comprehensive weighting methods were used to analyze the dynamic flood risk under various rainfall with different return periods. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) The volume of water in the pipeline network was close to be full at the rainfall with the return period of 20 years, and the drainage capacity of the pipeline network system was insufficient when the return period of rainfall was greater than 20 years. With the increase of rainfall return period, the risk areas in the downtown area gradually increased, mostly concentrated inn areas along roads, intersections of street and the area with dense development. (2) In the southeastern part of the downtown area, the flooding/waterlogging risk increased significantly from 1 year to 5 years of return periods. The area with high risk increased significantly with the increase of return period, which increased by 224.614 hm2 from 1 year to 100 years of return period. (3) Under the same return period of rainfall, the area with high and higher risk mostly concentrated in the central part of the downtown area with dense development. With high vegetation coverage and a relatively high elevation, the northeastern part of the downtown area is located in a low-risk area.

     

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