基于Copula函数的昆明市降水特征组合风险空间分布研究

Spatial distribution of combined risk of precipitation characteristics in Kunming city based on Copula functions

  • 摘要: 气候变化导致极端降雨事件发生频率增加,成为城市水安全的重要威胁.基于不同降水特征,评估降水特征的组合风险空间分布,能够为极端降雨灾害的防治和城市防洪减灾提供重要的科学依据.本文以昆明市城区2019—2021年56个雨量站逐5 min降雨量数据为基础,采用超定量法进行降水事件选样,计算了降雨时间T、峰值雨量Q0和总降雨量Q.通过优选边缘分布函数及Copula函数构建了降水特征的组合风险概率分析模型,定量评估了不同代表情况下的降水特征组合风险概率及其空间分布特征.结果表明:昆明市各站点降雨时间大多服从皮尔逊Ⅲ型(PE3)分布,总降雨量大多服从对数正态(lognorm)分布,峰值降雨量多服从广义极值(GEV)分布、广义logistic(GLO)分布和广义帕累托(GPO)分布;所有站点的峰值雨量和降雨时间呈负相关或相互独立,均服从Frank Copula和Independent Copula函数,Clayton Copula和Frank Copula函数可以更好地描述大部分站点的(Q0Q)和(TQ)变量组合的联合分布;昆明市主城区东部的山区,容易发生降雨时间、峰值雨量或总降雨量较大的降雨,主城区中部则更易发生降雨时间长、峰值雨量高、总降雨量大的降雨.

     

    Abstract: Climate change has led to increased frequency of extreme rainfall events, posing significant threat to urban water security. To assess the spatial distribution of combined risk based on different precipitation characteristics can provide important scientific evidence for prevention and mitigation of extreme rainfall disasters and urban flood control. In this paper the 5-minute rainfall data from 56 rain gauges in urban Kunming from 2019 to 2021 are applied to overdetermined method for precipitation event sampling, to calculate rainfall duration, peak rainfall, and total rainfall. Combined risk probability analysis of precipitation characteristics is done by selecting optimal marginal distribution functions and Copula functions, to quantitatively assess combined risk probability of precipitation characteristics under different representative conditions and their spatial distribution characteristics. Variable of each station in Kunming city largely follows Pearson Type Ⅲ (PE3) distribution, variable follows log-normal (lognorm) distribution, variable P follows Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, Generalized Logistic (GLO) distribution and Generalized Pareto (GPO) distribution. Peak rainfall P and rainfall duration of all stations are negatively correlated or independent, all following Frank Copula and Independent Copula functions. Clayton Copula and Frank Copula functions can better describe joint distribution of variable combinations (Q0, Q) and (T, Q) for most stations. In mountainous areas in the eastern part of urban Kunming, rainfall events with longer duration, higher peak rainfall, or greater total rainfall are likely to occur, while the central part of the main urban area is more prone to rainfall events with long duration, high peak rainfall, and large total rainfall.

     

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