鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力分析及障碍度诊断

Analysis of water resource carrying capacity and obstacle diagnosis in Ordos city

  • 摘要: 近些年鄂尔多斯市经济社会在高速发展的同时,区域水资源供需矛盾也愈加突出.本研究基于水资源、经济社会和生态环境3个层面22项评价指标,构建了鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力综合评价体系.采用AHP-熵权组合权重TOPSIS模型,开展2010—2021年鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力评价,应用障碍度模型诊断了评价结果的主要障碍因子及障碍度.结果表明:近10年鄂尔多斯市水资源承载力呈逐年上升趋势,其中:鄂托克旗和达拉特旗增速最快,年均可达2.5%;9个旗区水资源承载力多为临界可承载,时空分异显著,准格尔旗和杭锦旗的水资源承载力分别为最强和最弱;最主要的障碍因子为供水模数、水资源开发利用率、生态环境用水率.研究结果可为区域水资源高效利用、人口产业结构调整等提供支撑.

     

    Abstract: With rapid growth in the economy and build-up in infrastructure in recent years in Ordos city, contradiction between water resources supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. In this study a comprehensive evaluation system was constructed for the water resource carrying capacity of Ordos city based on 22 evaluation indicators spanning three dimensions (water resources, economic society, and ecological environment). Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Entropy-Weighted TOPSIS models were used to evaluate water resource carrying capacity from 2010 to 2021, obstacle degree model was applied to diagnose the main obstacle factors and their obstacle degrees. It was found that over the past decade, the water resource carrying capacity of Ordos city has shown a year-on-year increasing trend, with Etuoke banner and Dalad banner exhibiting the fastest growth rates, averaging 2.5% annually. The water resource carrying capacity in nine banners is mostly at a critical level, exhibiting significant spatiotemporal variations, with Zhungeer banner having the highest and Hangjin banner having the lowest water resource carrying capacity. The primary obstacle factors are identified as water supply modulus, water resources development and utilization rate, and ecological environment water consumption rate. These findings provide guide for efficient utilization of regional water resources and adjustment of population-industry structure.

     

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