黄纤玉, 郝新, 陈静, 欧阳威, ANARMAASharkhuu, SOYOL-ERDENETseren-Ochir. 基于博弈论的蒙古国经济社会-生态环境耦合协调度驱动因素及其特征研究[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 60(4): 499-508. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024094
引用本文: 黄纤玉, 郝新, 陈静, 欧阳威, ANARMAASharkhuu, SOYOL-ERDENETseren-Ochir. 基于博弈论的蒙古国经济社会-生态环境耦合协调度驱动因素及其特征研究[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 60(4): 499-508. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024094
HUANG Xianyu, HAO Xin, CHEN Jing, OUYANG Wei, ANARMAA Sharkhuu, SOYOL-ERDENE Tseren-Ochir. Driving factors and characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of socio-economic development and eco-environment development in Mongolia based on game theory[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2024, 60(4): 499-508. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024094
Citation: HUANG Xianyu, HAO Xin, CHEN Jing, OUYANG Wei, ANARMAA Sharkhuu, SOYOL-ERDENE Tseren-Ochir. Driving factors and characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of socio-economic development and eco-environment development in Mongolia based on game theory[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2024, 60(4): 499-508. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2024094

基于博弈论的蒙古国经济社会-生态环境耦合协调度驱动因素及其特征研究

Driving factors and characteristics of the coupling coordination degree of socio-economic development and eco-environment development in Mongolia based on game theory

  • 摘要: 蒙古国生态环境持续恶化及中蒙边境生态屏障薄弱是2国面临的共同发展问题,但目前全国尺度下综合性、多要素的经济社会与生态环境耦合协调发展类型、特征及驱动因素等尚缺乏定量评估,影响了中蒙双方共建“一带一路”绿色发展格局的统筹推进.本文总结了蒙古国经济社会及生态环境发展现状,采用AHP-CRITIC-博弈论法计算指标要素主客观组合权重,综合评价了蒙古国经济社会-生态环境发展的耦合协调度.结果表明,2005—2021年蒙古国经济社会-生态环境耦合协调度呈现波动上升趋势,耦合协调度类型始终属于严重失调类型,生态环境发展滞后是目前发展阶段的特征.社会发展水平和生态环境禀赋是经济社会子系统和生态环境子系统的主要驱动因素.皮尔逊相关性分析表明,水域面积和森林资源减少、水质恶化以及沙尘天气等灾害/事故响应增加与经济社会稳步发展的不匹配可能是导致该特征形成且耦合协调度始终较低的原因.为推动双边绿色发展战略深化对接,中蒙2国应在促进经济社会发展交流的同时,深化加强生态环境保护修复力度以恢复生态环境禀赋的交流合作.

     

    Abstract: Continuous deterioration of Mongolia’s ecological environment and weak ecological barrier along the China-Mongolia border are common development problems facing the two countries. However, at present, we lack quantitative assessment of the type, characteristics and driving factors of comprehensive and multi-factor coordinated development of social economy and eco-environment at the national scale, with adverse effect on overall promotion of the green development pattern of Belt and Road between China and Mongolia. In this paper we summarize the present status of socio-economic development and eco-environment development in Mongolia, and use AHP-CRITIC- game theory to calculate subjective and objective combined weights of index elements, and comprehensively evaluate the coupling coordination degree of socio-economic development and eco-environment development in Mongolia. We find that from 2005 to 2021, the coupling coordination degree of socio-economic development and eco-environment development in Mongolia presents a fluctuating upward trend, and the coupling coordination degree type always belongs to the seriously imbalance type, lagging development of ecological environment is the characteristic of the current development stage. Level of social development and endowment of ecological environment are the main driving factors for the socio-economic subsystem and eco-environment subsystem. Pearson correlation analysis shows that mismatch between decrease of water area and forest resources, deterioration of water quality and increase of disaster/accident response such as dust weather and steady development of economy and society may be the reason for the formation of this feature and the low coupling coordination degree. To deepen synergy of bilateral green development strategies, China and Mongolia should, while promoting exchanges in socio-economic development, deepen exchanges and cooperation in strengthening eco-environment protection and restoration efforts to restore eco-environment endowments.

     

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