北京地区近300年降水季节性变化特征

Characteristics of rainfall seasonality in Beijing area over the past 300 years

  • 摘要: 基于北京地区1724—2022年的月降水资料,定义了降水季节性指数(seasonality index,SI),量化了降水季节性特征,分析了降水季节性的变化趋势与波动规律,并探讨了降水季节性与海气指数的相关关系.研究结果表明:1724—2022年北京地区SI仅呈现微弱的递增趋势,其波动特征更为明显,表明降水季节性可能在增强.通过滑动t检验方法将SI序列划分为13个增减阶段.在1834年前,SI变化平缓,1834年后,SI基本呈现以60 年为周期的增减交替.从季节尺度来看,在SI的递减阶段,降水季节性降低,降水分布更均匀,原本集中于夏季的降水趋于向秋季分散,其次为春季;在SI的递增阶段,降水季节性增强,降水更集中,表现为春季与秋季降水百分比有所降低,降水重新向夏季集中.4个海气因子中,印度洋偶极子模式指数与SI具有明显的负相关性,北大西洋涛动与太平洋年代际振荡指数在较长的时间尺度上与SI的负相关性更为稳定,而厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数在较短的时间尺度上与SI的正相关性更为稳定.根据周期特征推测,当前很可能处于SI的上升阶段,有必要注意北京市夏季的防洪抗涝工作.

     

    Abstract: The monthly precipitation data from 1724 to 2022 in the Beijing area were used to define seasonality index (SI) and to quantify seasonal characteristics of precipitation. Trends and fluctuations in precipitation seasonality were analyzed, correlation between precipitation seasonality and ocean-atmosphere indices was explored. Data indicate that from 1724 to 2022, SI in Beijing shows a slight increasing trend, with more pronounced fluctuation characteristics, suggesting that precipitation seasonality may be intensifying. Moving t-test method was used to divide SI series into 13 phases of increase and decrease. Before 1834, SI showed very little changes. After 1834, SI alternated between increase and decrease in roughly 60-year cycles. On a seasonal scale, during phases of decreasing SI, precipitation seasonality decreases, leading to a more even distribution of precipitation throughout the year. Rainfalls originally concentrated in the summer tends to shift towards the autumn, and the spring. During phases of increasing SI, precipitation seasonality intensifies, resulting in more concentrated precipitations. The percentage of rainfall in spring and autumn decreases, and then concentrates back to the summer. Among the four ocean-atmosphere factors, the dipole mode index (DMI) exhibits a significant negative correlation with SI. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) show more stable negative correlations with SI over longer time scales. In contrast, the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) demonstrates a more stable positive correlation with SI over shorter time scales. Based on these cyclical characteristics, it is inferred that we are likely in an ascending phase of SI. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to flood prevention and drainage efforts in Beijing, especially during the summer.

     

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