Abstract: In order to study the potential development trend of nitrate pollution in the shallow groundwater of Qinhuangdao Plain area, a coupling model of groundwater flow and solute transport was constructed using GMS based on hydrogeology and measured data. The migration and pollution risk of nitrate in groundwater under potential point source pollution in the next 20 years was predicted. And the different scenarios of cutting off pollution sources were discussed.The results show that the shallow groundwater model was well fitted to 36 field data and can reflect the regional groundwater flow. The main extension direction of nitrate pollution plume in shallow groundwater was spreading from northwest to southeast coast. The local groundwater flow direction was influenced by the exploitation in the groundwater source and resulted in the significant pollution risk in Houmengying groundwater source in Changli County. In addition, it was found that the migration and dilution processes were the main factors to reduce the risk of nitrate pollution in groundwater sources. And the timely cutting off pollution sources could effectively reduce the pollution risk. This study is helpful to the prevention and control of nitrate pollution of groundwater in Qinhuangdao.