集成CLUMondo和城市引力模型的珠三角城市群土地变化多情景模拟

Multi-scenario simulation of land change in Pearl River Delta integrating CLUMondo and the urban gravity model

  • 摘要: 合理利用土地资源已经成为了城市可持续发展中的重要问题.土地变化模拟可以预测未来不同情景下的土地利用变化,为人们更合理的使用土地资源提供参考.土地变化模型是土地变化模拟的有效工具.在众多土地变化模型中,CLUMondo模型由于允许一种土地类型提供多种土地系统服务,更真实地刻画了土地类型与土地系统服务之间地关系,成为近年来流行的土地变化模型.CLUMondo模型广泛的应用于全球或区域的土地变化模拟中.但是,CLUMondo模型应用于城市群的扩张研究时,研究者们忽略了城市之间的相互作用.本文通过集成CLUMondo模型和城市引力模型,将城市引力模型的计算结果作为驱动因子参与CLUMondo模型的土地变化模拟中,解决了CLUMondo模型应用于城市群扩张模拟时忽略城市间相互作用的问题,并选择了珠三角城市群作为案例区域,验证了集成后模型的精度.本文得到如下结论:1)城市引力模型可以较好的刻画城市之间的相互作用;2)通过集成CLUMondo模型和城市引力模型,可以提高CLUMondo模型在模拟城市扩张时的精度.本文的研究为城市群的扩张模拟提供了解决方案,并为珠三角城市群的可持续发展提供建议.

     

    Abstract: How to use land resources reasonably has become an essential issue in the sustainable development of cities. Land change simulation can provide reasonable suggestions on the use of land resources because land change simulation can predict land use changes in different scenarios in the future. The practical tools for land change simulation are land change models. Among many land change models, the CLUMondo model has become popular in recent years because it allows one land type to provide multiple land system services. The CLUMondo model characterizes the relationship between land types and land system services more realistically. The CLUMondo model is widely used in global or regional land change simulations. However, researchers ignore the interaction between cities when the CLUMondo model is applied to the expansion of urban agglomerations. We integrated the CLUMondo and urban gravity model. Specifically, the result of the urban gravity model is used as the driving factor to participate in the land change simulation of the CLUMondo model. Besides, we selected the Pearl River Delta as the case study area to verify the accuracy of the integrated model. The paper draws the following conclusions: 1) the urban gravity model can better describe the interaction between cities; 2) there is higher accuracy in the CLUMondo model integrated with the urban gravity model compared with the CLUMondo model. Th paper provides a solution for the expansion simulation of the urban agglomeration and suggestions for the sustainable development of the urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.

     

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