基于城市综合实力引力模型的珠三角城市群土地变化多情景模拟

Multi-scenario simulation of land change in the Pearl River Delta based on gravity model of urban comprehensive strength

  • 摘要: 合理利用土地资源已经成为了城市可持续发展中的重要问题.土地变化模拟可以预测未来不同情景下的土地利用变化,为人们更合理地使用土地资源提供参考.土地变化模型是土地变化模拟的有效工具.在众多土地变化模型中,CLUMondo模型成为近年来流行的土地变化模型,其特征在于允许一种土地类型提供多种土地系统服务,更真实地刻画了土地类型与土地系统服务之间的关系,该模型已广泛地应用于全球或区域的土地变化模拟中.为了使得CLUMondo模型应用于城市群的扩张研究时能够更全面地反映城市之间的相互作用,本文提出了一种基于城市综合实力引力模型的模拟方法. 具体而言, 本文通过集成CLUMondo模型和城市引力模型,将城市引力模型的计算结果作为驱动因子参与CLUMondo模型的土地变化模拟中,解决了CLUMondo模型应用于城市群扩张模拟时忽略城市间相互作用的问题,并选择了珠三角城市群作为案例区域,验证了集成后模型的精度.本文得到如下结论:1)城市引力模型可以较好地刻画城市之间的相互作用;2)通过集成CLUMondo模型和城市引力模型,可以提高CLUMondo模型在模拟城市扩张时的精度.本文的研究为城市群的扩张模拟提供了解决方案,并为珠三角城市群的可持续发展提供建议.

     

    Abstract: How to use land resources reasonably has become an essential issue in the sustainable development of cities. Land-change simulations can provide rational suggestions for the use of land resources, as land-change simulation can predict land-use changes under different future scenarios. Practical tools for land-change simulations are land-change models. Among the many land-change models, CLUMondo has become popular in recent years. CLUMondo model characterizes the relationship between land-types and land-system services more realistically by allowing one land-type to provide multiple land-system services. CLUMondo model is widely used in global or regional land-change simulations. To enable CLUMondo model more comprehensively capture intercity interactions within urban agglomeration, we proposed a simulation method based on a gravity model of urban comprehensive strength. Specifically, CLUMondo model was integrated with urban gravity model. The results of urban gravity model were used as driving factors in land-change simulation of CLUMondo model. The Pearl River Delta was selected as the study area to evaluate the accuracy of the integrated model. The urban gravity model was found to better describe interactions between cities. Higher accuracy was achieved in CLUMondo model integrated with urban gravity model compared with CLUMondo model alone. This work provides a solution for expansion simulation of urban agglomeration and offers suggestions for sustainable development of urban agglomeration in the Pearl River Delta.

     

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