基于VIC水文模型的黄河典型支流径流模拟及演变归因

Runoff simulation and evolution attribution of typical tributaries of the Yellow River based on the VIC hydrological model

  • 摘要: 气候变化和人类活动是导致径流变化的主因,近几十年,大黑河流域径流呈显著的下降趋势,已严重威胁区域水资源可持续开发利用和生态系统健康维持.本研究基于大黑河流域4个典型水文站的实测径流资料,开展了径流演变及归因研究.首先,采用Mann-Kendall和Pettitt突变检验方法确定出大黑河流域实测径流序列的突变年份,店上村、旗下营和美岱3个水文站径流突变年为1999年,三两水文站径流突变年为1995年;其次,构建了大黑河流域VIC水文模型,在率定期和验证期模型的NSE和R2均在0.6以上,对径流的模拟效果较好;最后,基于VIC模型建立了径流变化归因分析的水文模拟法,结果表明:大黑河流域径流变化的主导因素为人类活动,贡献率占77.1%~90.1%,气候变化占9.9%~22.9%.本研究可为黄河流域典型气候区径流演变及环境变化应对等提供科学依据.

     

    Abstract: Climate changes and human activities both lead to changes in river runoff. Runoff of the Dahei River basin has shown significant downward trend in recent decades, threatening seriously sustainable development and utilization of regional water resources, and maintenance of ecosystem health. Analysis of runoff evolution and attribution is therefore conducted in this work, using observed runoff data from 4 typical hydrological stations in the Dahei River basin. The Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests were used to identify abrupt-change years in observed runoff sequences of the Dahei River basin. Abrupt-change year for runoff at Dianshangcun, Qixiaying, and Meidai hydrological stations was determined to be 1999, but for Sanliang hydrological station, it was 1995. The VIC hydrological model was constructed for the Dahei River basin. NSE and R2 values of the model during calibration and validation periods were found both to be above 0.6, indicating good simulation performance for runoff. Hydrological simulation was established based on VIC model for attribution analysis of runoff changes. The dominant factor influencing runoff changes in the Dahei River basin was identified to be human activities, with a contribution rate ranging from 77.1% to 90.1%, whilst climate changes accounted for 9.9% to 22.9%. These data will help understand runoff evolution and responses to environmental changes in typical climate regions of the Yellow River basin.

     

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