全球耕地与粮食产量的时空演变及空间格局研究

Spatiotemporal evolution and spatial pattern of global cultivated land and grain yield

  • 摘要: 基于重心分析和空间错位指数分析等方法,利用1961—2021年全球耕地和谷物产量数据,系统分析了全球耕地和粮食产量的时空分布格局、错位特征和影响因素.结果表明:1)近60 a来,全球耕地面积和粮食总产量缓慢增长,已进入相对稳定的平台期,耕地重心整体朝向东南地区移动,南北方向上的耕地面积相对东西方向更为集中; 2)全球粮食产量空间分布不均,易造成区域粮食短缺问题,粮食安全面临危机,全球谷物重心整体朝向西北移动,东西方向上的产量相对南北方向更为集中; 3)全球耕地和谷物产量分布的空间一致性不高,且二者整体呈现出负向错位特征,全球大多数国家处于耕地低效化利用阶段.

     

    Abstract: Centroid analysis and spatial displacement index analysis have been performed in this work to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, displacement, and influencing factors of global cultivated land and grain yield from 1961 to 2021. In the past nearly 60 years, the global cultivated land ownership and total grain yield have slowly increased, and entered a relatively stable platform period. The overall center of gravity of cultivated land has moved towards the southeast region, the cultivated land area in the north-south direction is more concentrated compared to the east-west direction. The uneven spatial distribution of global grain yield can easily lead to regional food shortages, posing a crisis to food security. The global grain center of gravity is shifting towards the northwest, with yield in the east-west direction being more concentrated compared to the north-south direction. The spatial consistency of global cultivated land and grain yield distribution is not high, showing a negative dislocation feature overall. Most countries around the world are in the stage of inefficient utilization of cultivated land.

     

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