风能模拟的台风“摩羯”致灾危险性评价

Disaster risk assessment of Typhoon "Yagi" utilizing wind energy simulation

  • 摘要: 近年来我国强台风频发,尤其是2411号超强台风“摩羯”对海南省造成了非常严重的经济损失和社会影响.本文基于台风登陆期间台风风场的风能密度累积计算和对比分析,有效地识别了台风风灾的致灾危险性特征和规律.主要结论:1)2411号“摩羯”在海南岛上,大于12级风的覆盖面积为1473 km2,大于13级风的覆盖面积为933 km2,大于14级风的覆盖面积为101 km2,重灾区主要位于文昌市、海口市;2)2411号 “摩羯”台风风能整体高于1407号“威马逊”,文昌市地区“摩羯”台风风能总量超过“威马逊”13倍左右,约50万Kj;3)重灾区房屋倒塌、农业渔业损毁以及基础设施系统性功能受损,显示出此次台风风灾的复杂性和广泛性.气候变化背景下台风趋强趋频,建议基于台风风能估算结果提升抗风设计标准和基础设施韧性,尤其是农村住房、农业设施及电力、通迅等基础设施.

     

    Abstract: In recent years, there has been an augmentation in the frequency of intense typhoons, particularly Super Typhoon "Yagi" (Typhoon No. 2411), which has caused substantial economic losses and social impacts in Hainan Province in China. This study compares the wind disaster assessment method based on accumulated wind energy, thereby mitigating the limitations of traditional assessments based solely on maximum wind speed. The research findings indicate that the accumulated wind energy model more precisely reflects actual disaster losses, especially in high-vulnerability areas such as Wenchang and Haikou in Hainan Province. The coverage area of winds greater than level 12 is 1473 km2, level 13 is 933 km2, level 14 is 101 km2 in Hainan island. The overall wind energy of "Yagi" is higher than that "Rammasun", and the total wind energy of Typhoon "Yagi" in Wenchang City is about 13 times that of " Rammasun ", about 500,000 kJ. The study reveals the influence of factors such as typhoon wind speed, duration, and terrain on accumulated wind energy, thus elucidating the regional disparities in wind disaster risk. Under the background of climate change, it is recommended to improve wind resistance design standards and infrastructure resilience based on typhoon wind energy estimation results, especially for rural housing, agricultural facilities, electricity, communication and other infrastructure.

     

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