黄土塬地貌区滑坡灾害易发性量化评估及关键驱动因子

Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard susceptibility and key driving factors in loess plateau geomorphologic area

  • 摘要: 聚焦黄土塬地貌区滑坡灾害,综合考虑地形地貌、水文、土壤等因素,针对黄土塬地貌区滑坡易发性评价建立了综合量化评价体系.利用LightGBM模拟黄土高原黄土塬滑坡易发性,选取5个精度指标评估其预测性能与鲁棒性,运用SHAP算法解析诱发因素对模拟结果的影响,揭示黄土塬地貌区滑坡易发性发生机制.研究发现,LightGBM模型对黄土塬滑坡易发性具有较强的模拟与预测能力(AUC为0.844),SHAP算法能较好地辨识出黄土塬地貌区滑坡易发性关键驱动因子,即距道路距离、年均降雨量、地形起伏度、人口密度、地表切割深度、坡长等,在此基础上绘制了研究区滑坡易发性风险图,为区域滑坡治理及滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供了关键理论依据.

     

    Abstract: Landslide has always been an important issue in engineering geology; most studies focus on landslide disasters in mountainous areas, few studies focus on landslide disasters in the loess plateau area. Loess plateau, an important geographic unit in northern China, has special geological structures, under certain climatic conditions often leads to landslides, mudslides and other disasters, causing great disasters and property losses. In this paper, landslide disaster in loess plateau geomorphology area is studied, to establish a comprehensive quantitative evaluation system for landslide susceptibility by comprehensively considering factors of topography and geomorphology, hydrology, soil and other factors. LightGBM is used to simulate landslide susceptibility of loess plateau. Five indicators are selected to evaluate prediction performance and robustness. SHAP algorithm is used to analyze influence of triggering factors on the simulation results, with mechanism of landslide susceptibility in loess plateau geomorphologic area revealed. LightGBM model could simulate and predict susceptibility of landslides in loess plateau rather well (AUC = 0.844). SHAP algorithm identifies key driving factors: distance from road, annual average rainfall, degree of topographic undulation, density of population, depth of ground surface cutting, length of slope. Landslide susceptibility in the study area has been mapped. A risk map was drawn. This work provides solid theoretical basis for regional landslide management and landslide disaster prevention and mitigation.

     

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