黄土塬地貌区滑坡灾害易发性量化评估及关键驱动因子

Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard susceptibility and key driving factors in loess plateau geomorphologic area

  • 摘要: 本文聚焦黄土塬地貌区滑坡灾害,综合考虑地形地貌、水文、土壤等因素,针对黄土塬地貌区滑坡易发性评价建立了综合量化评价体系.利用LightGBM模拟黄土高原黄土塬滑坡易发性,选取5个精度指标评估其预测性能与鲁棒性,运用SHAP算法解析诱发因素对模拟结果的影响,揭示黄土塬地貌区滑坡易发性发生机制.研究发现,LightGBM模型对黄土塬滑坡易发性具有较强的模拟与预测能力(AUC=0.844),SHAP算法较好地辨识出黄土塬地貌区滑坡易发性关键驱动因子,即距道路距离、年均降雨量、地形起伏度、人口密度、地表切割深度、坡长等,在此基础上绘制了研究区滑坡易发性风险图,为区域滑坡治理及滑坡灾害的防灾减灾提供了关键理论依据.

     

    Abstract: Landslide stability has always been an important scientific issue in engineering geology, and most of the existing studies focus on landslide disasters in mountainous areas, but there are fewer studies on landslide disasters in the Loess Plateau area. Loess Plateau is an important geographic unit in northern China, and its special geological structure and climatic conditions have led to the occurrence of landslides, mudslides and other disasters in this region, which have caused great disasters and property losses to the local people, so the study of landslides in the Loess Plateau area is the difficulty and focus of Loess Disasters research. This paper focuses on the landslide disaster in loess plateau geomorphology area, and establishes a comprehensive quantitative evaluation system for the evaluation of landslide susceptibility in loess plateau geomorphology area by comprehensively considering the factors of topography and geomorphology, hydrology, soil and so on. LightGBM is used to simulate the landslide susceptibility of loess plateau, and five accuracy indicators are selected to evaluate its prediction performance and robustness, and SHAP algorithm is used to analyze the influence of triggering factors on the simulation results, and the mechanism of landslide susceptibility in loess plateau geomorphic area is revealed. The LightGBM model was found to have a strong ability to simulate and predict the susceptibility of landslides in loess plateau (AUC=0.844), and the SHAP algorithm identifies the key driving factors of landslide susceptibility in loess plateau geomorphology area, namely, the distance from the road, the annual average rainfall, the degree of topographic undulation, the density of population, the depth of ground surface cutting, and the length of the slope, etc. The landslide susceptibility in the study area has been mapped based on this. On this basis, a risk map of the study area was drawn, which provides a key theoretical basis for regional landslide management and landslide disaster prevention and mitigation.

     

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