河西走廊1960—2020年风动力的时空变化规律及预测

Spatial and temporal variation and prediction of wind energy in Hexi corridor from 1960 to 2020

  • 摘要: 河西走廊12个气象站1960—2020年逐时风速数据统计表明,河西走廊西部区域属于中、高风能环境,东部属于低风能环境,且东、西部年平均风速、起沙风概率和输沙势的变化规律并不相同.各站点历年逐时风速累积概率分布均满足WeibullCum分布函数,且函数中的常数项B、C、D分别具有周期性波动和趋于减小的年际变化特征,据此建立了河西走廊东、西部区域风速累积概率分布预测方程.模拟结果和统计结果对比显示,预测方程对年平均风速和起沙风概率的模拟效果较好,对输沙势的模拟结果整体小于实际.2021—2024年实际统计结果进一步证实了上述结论.河西走廊东、西部区域风力变化周期存在差异,未来10年东部区域年均风速和起沙风概率峰值预计出现在2025年,西部区域峰值晚于2030年.

     

    Abstract: Statistics from the hourly wind speed collected between 1960 and 2020 from 12 meteorological stations in the Hexi Corridor indicate that the western region of the corridor is located in a intermediate to high wind energy environment, while the eastern region is located in a low wind energy environment. Furthermore, the variation rules of the annual average wind speed, the probability of sand-driving wind, and drift potential differ between the eastern and western regions of the corridor. WeibullCum distribution function is universally applicable to express the annual cumulative probability distribution of hourly wind speeds at various meteorological stations. The interannual variation of the constant terms B in the WeibullCum function exhibits periodic fluctuation, while C and D show a decreasing trend. The prediction equations of cumulative probability distribution function of wind speed are then established for the eastern and western regions of Hexi Corridor, respectively. It is observed that the prediction equations have high prediction accuracy for annual average wind speed and sand-driving wind probability, whereas the simulated drift potential is overall less than the actual results. The actually statistical results from 2021 to 2024 further confirm the above conclusions. The wind variations exhibit distinct cycles in the eastern and western regions of the Hexi Corridor. In the next 10 years, it is expected that the peak values for annual average wind speed and sand-driving wind probability will occur around 2025 in the eastern region, while the peak will be later than 2030 in the western region.

     

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