人类活动对径流的影响:研究进展与挑战

Impacts of human activities on runoff: Advances and Challenges

  • 摘要: 在气候变化和人类活动双重影响下,流域径流过程发生了显著的变化,特别是在人类活动日益剧烈的当下,很多流域同时存在着多种人类活动,对径流产生了复杂影响.本文综述了多种人类活动对流域径流影响的研究进展,回顾了人类活动对径流影响的划分方法,包括土地利用变化、植被变化、水土保持、人类取用水、水库蓄水、采矿活动、城市化等,总结了人工智能在径流变化归因分析中的应用.当前流域径流变化的归因研究中,对人类活动对流域径流过程影响的考虑还明显不足,特别是对径流的直接影响.未来流域径流变化的归因分析应该摒弃孤立视角,以流域水文模型为基础,耦合多种人类活动的相关模块,重视不同人类活动之间的交互作用,发展人类活动耦合的“社会-生态-水文”集成模型,服务于可持续发展目标的实现,同时需加强不同方法的不确定性分析.另外,为了解决气候变化和人类活动相互影响的问题,未来的流域水文模型应考虑气候变化和人类活动之间的复杂耦合过程.

     

    Abstract: Under the combined effects of climate change and human activities, the runoff processes within basins have undergone significant alterations. With human activities becoming increasingly intense, multiple activities are occurring simultaneously in many basins, which significantly impact runoff. This study focuses on the influence of human activities on runoff and reviews various methods for classifying these impacts, including land use change, vegetation changes, soil and water conservation, water withdrawal, reservoir storage, and mining activities. In current analyses of runoff changes in basins, the impact of human activities, especially their direct influence on runoff, is often not fully accounted for. Future studies should integrate basin hydrological models coupled with modules that account for various human activities, and should place greater emphasis on uncertainty analysis across different methods. Additionally, future hydrological models of river basins should consider the interactions between climate change and human activities, while also addressing the reciprocal influences among different human activities.

     

/

返回文章
返回