Abstract: In response to the ecological fragility, frequent flooding and drought disasters, and significant supply-demand conflicts regarding water resources in the Kuye River basin, a comprehensive evaluation system for water resource carrying capacity has been established. This system is based on 22 indicators spanning water resources, socio-economic factors, and the ecological environment, specifically tailored to the characteristics of the Kuye River basin. Using a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Entropy Weight Method for subjective and objective weighting, the TOPSIS model was employed to conduct a dynamic evaluation of the multi-dimensional water resource carrying capacity of the Kuye River basin from 2010 to 2023. An obstacle degree model was then applied to diagnose the primary obstacles and their impacts on the evaluation results. The findings indicate that from 2010 to 2023, the water resource carrying capacity of the Kuye River basin exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with the capacity status gradually transitioning from overloaded to weakly sustainable. This change is closely linked to improvements in two criterion levels: socio-economic factors and the ecological environment. The most significant obstacles hindering the enhancement of water resource carrying capacity include the water supply modulus, the ecological environmental water usage rate, water consumption per ten thousand GDP, drought index, water consumption per ten thousand industrial added value, per capita water resource utilization, water area ratio, surface water source proportion, and forest coverage rate. These research findings can support the efficient utilization of water resources in the Kuye River basin and inform adjustments in population, economy, and industrial structure.