Abstract: Conflicts among water resources, ecological environment, and economic development have become increasingly prominent． Coordinating watershed economic development with water resources and ecological environments is a critical task for sustainable socio-economic development in China． Comprehensive evaluation is conducted in this study of the water resources-water environment-economic society (WEE) system in the Muwen River basin, to promote coordinated development and to support decision-making in basin planning． A multidimensional coupling evaluation system is constructed integrating Moran’s I index with the PSO-SVR model, to examine interactive evolution patterns of the WEE system in the Muwen River basin in 2025, 2030, 2035． Temporal evolution is found to exhibit a declining trend, characterized by “high coordination (pre-2012) → moderate coordination (2013–2016) → low coordination (2017) → moderate coordination (2019–2020)”． Regions with higher indices for the water-resource, water-environment, and socio-economic sub-systems are found clustered in densely urbanized areas． Overall coordination of the coupled system peaked in 2015 but declined across all regions by 2020． Obstacle-degree analysis reveals that chemical-fertilizer application intensity is the dominant influencing factor, the most significant obstacles are largely concentrated within the water-environment sub-system． Scenario predictions suggest that water resources index will rise to 0.689 by 2035, the water environment system will undergo a U-shaped restoration cycle． These findings will guide sustainable development and green watershed governance in the Muwen River basin．