海南岛台风暴雨道路直接经济损失模拟研究

Assessment of Typhoon-induced direct economic losses to road infrastructure in Hainan Island

  • 摘要: 台风是威胁沿海地区道路基础设施的主要自然灾害之一,开展台风道路损失评估是台风灾害风险防范的基础.本文以海南岛为例,开展台风暴雨对道路基础设施的损失模拟研究.针对台风“海鸥”和“莎莉嘉”,采用一次函数、二次函数、幂函数、指数函数和Logistic函数,模拟过程单日最大降水量、过程日平均降水量、过程总降水量等降水致灾因子与历史损失的关系,选出最具代表性的危险性指标,构建损失评估模型;并以“威马逊”“芭玛”“电母”3场典型台风为案例,对模型的可靠性进行了验证.结果表明,过程单日最大降水量是影响道路水毁的最关键因子,与道路损失的相关系数为0.17;Logistic函数在模拟道路损失时拟合效果最优,3场台风道路损失的模拟误差最高为50.22%,最低为6.77%.研究可为区域热带气旋道路损失评估提供典型案例,结果可对海南省台风灾害道路设施韧性提升提供一定的科学依据.

     

    Abstract: Typhoons are among the most destructive natural hazards threatening road infrastructure in coastal regions, and assessing typhoon-induced road damage is essential for effective disaster risk reduction. Taking Hainan Island as a case study, this paper models the impacts of typhoon-induced damage on road infrastructure. Focusing on Typhoons Kalmaegi and Sarika, we employed linear, quadratic, power, exponential, and logistic functions to model the relationship between rainfall hazard indicators (including maximum daily rainfall, average daily rainfall, and total event rainfall) and historical loss data, aiming to identify the most representative indicators for constructing a loss assessment model. To further validate the model's reliability, three additional typhoon events (Rammasun, Parma, and Dianmu) are used. The results indicate that maximum daily rainfall is the most critical factor influencing road flood damage, exhibiting the highest correlation with road losses (correlation coefficient is 0.17). Among the tested models, the logistic function provides the best fit for simulating road losses, with prediction errors ranging from 6.77% to 50.22% across the three validation typhoon cases. Overall, this study provides a representative case for regional road loss assessment under tropical cyclones and offers scientific support for enhancing the resilience of road infrastructure to typhoon disasters in Hainan Province.

     

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