长江经济带碳排放时空演变特征及驱动因素研究

Research on the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

  • 摘要: 在“双碳”战略背景以及长江经济带绿色可持续发展的要求下,明确掌握长江经济带碳排放时空演变特征以及驱动机制对于碳排放减排政策的制定和实现低碳发展具有重要意义.本文基于长江经济带11个省市的2001—2021年碳排放量、能源消耗、经济发展等数据,采用分段线性回归分析、Tapio脱钩模型以及LMDI模型等方法探讨碳排放的时空演变特征以及驱动因素.结果表明:1)2001—2021年,碳排放量从11.81亿t增至37.37亿t,11个省市在2011—2013年期间出现显著断点,呈现先快速增长后逐步放缓的特征,在空间分布上呈现“东部>中部>西部”的格局;2)在2001—2021年期间,碳排放与经济增长的脱钩关系呈现明显的“扩张性连接-弱脱钩-强脱钩”变化趋势;3)经济产出是碳排放增长的主要驱动因素,能源效率则起到显著的碳减排作用.综上,长江经济带需要加强能源效率的提升、加速经济结构的优化以及推动区域协同减排以推动绿色低碳发展目标的实现.

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of the "dual carbon" strategy and the requirements for the green and sustainable development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it is of great significance to clearly understand the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt for the formulation of carbon emission reduction policies and the realization of low-carbon development. Based on the data of carbon emissions, energy consumption, and economic development of 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2001 to 2021, this paper uses methods such as piecewise linear regression analysis, Tapio decoupling model, and LMDI model to explore the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon emissions. The results show that: ① From 2001 to 2021, carbon emissions increased from 1.181 billion tons to 3.737 billion tons. There was a significant breakpoint in the 11 provinces and municipalities during 2011-2013, showing a pattern of rapid growth followed by a gradual slowdown. Spatially, it presented a pattern of "east > central > west". ② During 2001-2021, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth showed a clear trend of "expansionary connection - weak decoupling - strong decoupling". ③ Economic output was the main driving factor for the growth of carbon emissions, while energy efficiency played a significant role in carbon emission reduction. In conclusion, the Yangtze River Economic Belt needs to enhance energy efficiency, accelerate the optimization of economic structure, and promote regional collaborative emission reduction to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development.

     

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