Abstract: Soil pollution of cultivated land is mainly due to heavy metal pollution． Pollution risk by heavy metals Cd, Hg, As, Pb, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Zn in regional cultivated land was evaluated in this work with soil environmental capacity． The amount of heavy metal input from atmospheric deposition, chemical fertilizer application, irrigation water, livestock and poultry manure returning to the field and compound feed in the region was calculated, accumulation prediction was carried out with accumulation law of dynamic environmental capacity． Environmental risk of compound heavy metal pollution in cultivated land in the study area was found to be low, with sufficient environmental capacity． A few points with middle and high environmental risk were identified, but overall the environment was relatively safe. For individual heavy metals, As and Cd had the greatest risk of pollution, with some points showing pollution． The risks of Hg, Pb, Cu and Zn were found to be generally controllable, with only a few points showing medium and high risks． The risk levels of Cr and Ni were found the lowest, either risk-free or of low risk． The annual input of cultivated land in the study area was as follows: Cd 6.393 g·hm⁻², Hg 0.965 g·hm⁻², As 77.712 g·hm⁻², Pb 258.732 g·hm⁻², Cr 61.729 g·hm⁻², Cu 375.654 g·hm⁻², Ni 40.916 g·hm⁻², Zn 1448.796 g·hm⁻²． Predictive modeling showed that accumulated concentrations of all heavy metals over the next 5, 10, 20, 30, 50, and 100 years would remain below the risk threshold, suggesting a persistently low overall risk． Projections of spatial distribution for As and Cd accumulation over these timeframes revealed a gradual increase in pollution risk with time． Atmospheric deposition, irrigation water, livestock and poultry manure, and compound feed were identified as the primary input pathways．