基于Meta分析的绿色流域评价指标体系构建研究

Research on the Construction of Evaluation Index System for Green River Basins Based on Meta-Analysis

  • 摘要: 构建科学系统的绿色流域评价指标体系是实现流域可持续发展的重要基础.研究基于Meta分析方法系统整合了国内外流域评价研究的多目标多维度指标,汇总了基于"功能性-完整性-系统性"的绿色流域评价指标集,通过相关性分析和异质性检验,揭示了3个不同维度指标与绿色流域综合水平的相关性程度和异质性特点.研究结果显示:功能性维度中,植被指数(R = 0.75)和森林覆盖率(R = 0.75)等自然资本指标与流域绿色水平呈强正相关,土壤侵蚀(R = −0.47)和水土流失率(R = −0.50)则呈显著负相关;完整性维度中,重要生境保持率(R = 0.71)和生物多样性指数(R = 0.60)相关性稳定偏高,体现了生态类指标的关键作用;系统性维度中,人均GDP(R = 0.64)和城镇化水平(R = 0.62)与流域绿色水平存在正向关联.并通过亚组分析对高异质性指标进行了初步的探讨.在此基础上进一步从绿色流域差异化评价、指标体系的尺度依赖性和动态评价指标体系构建讨论了绿色流域评价面临的关键问题.研究结果为差异化、精准化的绿色流域评价提供了科学参考.

     

    Abstract: The establishment of a scientific and systematic indicator system for “green watersheds” is a fundamental prerequisite for achieving sustainable watershed development. This study systematically integrated multi-objective and multi-dimensional indicators from domestic and international watershed evaluation studies using meta-analysis. A comprehensive indicator set for green watersheds was subsequently compiled based on a “Functionality-Integrity-Systemicity” framework. Through correlation analysis and heterogeneity tests, this study revealed the degree of correlation and heterogeneity characteristics between indicators from the three dimensions and the overall green watershed level. The results show that within the Functionality dimension, natural capital indicators such as the vegetation index (R = 0.75) and forest coverage rate (R = 0.75) exhibited strong positive correlations with the green watershed level, whereas soil erosion (R = −0.47) and the soil and water loss rate (R = −0.50) showed significant negative correlations. In the Integrity dimension, the important habitat retention rate (R = 0.71) and the biodiversity index (R = 0.60) demonstrated consistently high correlations, highlighting the pivotal role of ecological indicators. For the Systemicity dimension, a positive association was found between GDP per capita (R = 0.64), urbanization level (R = 0.62), and the green watershed level. Furthermore, subgroup analysis was conducted to preliminarily investigate the sources of high heterogeneity for specific indicators. Based on these findings, the study discusses key challenges in green watershed evaluation, including differentiated assessment, the scale dependency of indicator systems, and the construction of dynamic evaluation frameworks. Ultimately, this research provides a scientific reference for the development of differentiated and precise green watershed evaluations.

     

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