基于多主体模型的水库型水源地有机肥补贴政策响应模拟与优化

Simulation and optimization of organic fertilizer subsidy policy response in reservoir-type water source areas on agent-based model

  • 摘要: 为破解水库型水源地农业面源污染治理中补贴政策激励不足与协同效率低下的问题,本文基于多主体建模方法,构建了涵盖农户、农产品收购商、水库水厂和政府等行为主体的有机肥补贴政策响应模拟框架.通过设定农户行为异质性与财政激励机制,系统评估了不同有机肥补贴政策情景对各主体的经济收益与水源地的环境影响.模拟案例结果表明:适中的补贴强度(60%-70%)能最大化多主体效益,促进有机种植并激发市场主体参与;低补贴力度不能有效激励有机转型,而过高补贴虽提高环境效益,但面临边际效益递减.该模型为优化水源地有机肥补贴政策提供了定量评估工具,帮助政策制定者平衡财政投入与环境治理效益,支持水源地生态保护与绿色发展的决策.

     

    Abstract: To address the challenges of insufficient incentives and low coordination efficiency in the governance of agricultural non-point source pollution in reservoir-type water source areas, this study develops a multi-agent simulation framework that incorporates key stakeholders, including farmers, agricultural product buyers, water utilities, and government authorities. By accounting for farmer heterogeneity and fiscal incentive mechanisms, the model systematically evaluates the economic outcomes for different actors and the environmental impacts under various organic fertilizer subsidy scenarios. The simulation case results show that a moderate subsidy intensity (60%-70%) maximizes multi-party benefits, facilitates farmer transition, and encourages market participation. In contrast, low subsidy levels fail to drive change, while excessively high subsidies yield diminishing marginal returns despite improved environmental outcomes. The proposed model provides a quantitative tool for optimizing organic fertilizer subsidy policies, helping policymakers balance fiscal inputs with environmental governance outcomes, and supporting ecological protection and green development of water source areas.

     

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