基于不同基流分割方法的北洛河流域基流演变分析及归因

Analysis and attribution of baseflow evolution in the Beiluo River Basin by different baseflow segmentation methods

    摘要
  • 摘要: 探究北洛河流域的基流演变特征，识别影响基流变化的主导因素，为流域水资源管理提供科学依据．基于北洛河流域1982—2020年水文气象数据和植被数据，对比时间步长法（FI、SI、LM）和数字滤波法（Lyne-Hollick、Chapman、Chapman-Maxwell、Eckhardt）共7种基流分割方法在研究区的适用性，并进行趋势突变检验和小波分析探究基流的演变规律，采用弹性系数法结合最小二乘定量评估气候变化和植被覆盖对基流变化的相对贡献率．结果表明：1）7种基流分割方法中，Lyne-Hollick滤波法（多年平均基流指数为0.447，Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数为 0.927，R2为0.836，平均相对误差为9.93%）精度最高，分割结果很好地反映出基流的稳定性和滞后性，日基流过程线更符合实际特征；2）流域年内尺度上基流呈“双峰型”特征分布，而年基流量呈减少趋势（−0.14 mm·a−1），且在2004年发生突变，基流的周期性变化受第一主周期（23 a）控制，同时基流量未来仍呈持续减少的趋势；3）植被覆盖指数增加是导致北洛河流域基流量减少的主导因素（贡献率为62.82%），潜在蒸散发增加（贡献率为27.08%）和降水量减少（贡献率为9.71%）也对基流量的减少起一定作用．研究结果为北洛河流域的水资源可持续管理和生态文明建设提供科学支撑．

     

    Abstract: The aim of this work was to explore the characteristics of baseflow evolution in the Beiluo River Basin, to identify the dominant factors affecting baseflow changes, and to provide some scientific basis for water resource management in the basin． The hydrometeorological data and vegetation data of the Beiluo River Basin from 1982 to 2020 were used, applicability of a total of seven baseflow segmentation methods, including time-step methods (FI, SI, LM), digital filtering methods (Lyne-Hollick, Chapman, Chapman-Maxwell, and Eckhardt), were compared． The trend mutation test and wavelet analysis were used to explore evolution of baseflow, the elasticity coefficient method combined with least squares method was used to quantitatively assess relative contribution of climate change and vegetation cover to baseflow changes． Among the seven baseflow partitioning methods, the Lyne-Hollick filtering method (multi-year average BFI = 0.447, NSE = 0.927, R2 = 0.836, MRE = 9.93%) was found to have the highest estimation accuracy, and the partitioning results reflected the stability and lag of baseflow well, and the daily baseflow process line was more in line with the actual characteristics． The baseflow was found to be bimodal in the basin on the intra-annual scale and on the intra-annual scale． The annual base flow showed a decreasing trend (−0.14 mm/a), but a sudden change occurred in 2004． The cyclic change of base flow was found to be controlled by the first main cycle (23a), the base flow showed a continuous decreasing trend in the future． Increase in NDVI was the dominant factor (contributing to 62.7%) leading to decreased base flow in the Beiluo River Basin． Increase in NDVI was a dominant factor (contribution rate of 62.82%), increase in potential evapotranspiration (contribution rate of 27.08%) and decrease in precipitation (contribution rate of 9.71%) also played a role in the decrease of base flow． These data provide scientific support for sustainable management of water resources and construction of ecological civilization in the Beiluo River Basin．

     

    • HTML全文
    • 参考文献(46)
    • 相关文章
    • 施引文献
  • 资源附件(0)

/

返回文章
返回