融合特征协同筛选与时序深度学习的棉花期货价格预测方法

A cotton futures price prediction method integrating feature synergistic selection and temporal deep learning

  • 摘要: 为解决棉花期货价格预测面临的多源异构数据融合与特征提取效率低的问题,提出了特征协同筛选驱动的双向长短期记忆网络(bidirectional long short-term memory,BLSTM)的多模态数据融合预测框架;整合了期货市场指标、遥感影像特征和投资者情绪文本等多源信息;通过特征协同筛选机制和BLSTM分别实现了特征层次化降维,并捕捉到时序数据的非线性动态特征;验证了多源数据融合在揭示价格波动复杂驱动因素中的有效性.试验结果表明,相较未融合数据的BLSTM,本文方法在均方根、平均绝对、平均绝对百分比和标准化均方根等误差分别降低了49.1%、56.1%、11.2%和14.5%,显著提升了预测精度.特征分析结果显示,期货历史价格、市场情绪指数及遥感植被特征对预测结果均有贡献.通过本研究,以期为农产品金融衍生品分析提供新思路,为多模态数据在金融建模中的应用提供实证参考.

     

    Abstract: Accurately predicting cotton futures prices is challenging due to the difficulties in fusing multi-source heterogeneous data and the inefficiency in feature extraction. To address this, we propose a multimodal data fusion framework driven by a feature co-selection mechanism and a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) network. This framework integrates multi-source information, including futures market indicators, remote sensing image features, and investor sentiment derived from textual data. The feature co-selection mechanism facilitates hierarchical dimensionality reduction, while the BLSTM captures nonlinear temporal dependencies. Our experiments validate the effectiveness of multi-source data fusion in elucidating the complex drivers of price fluctuations. Results demonstrate that our proposed method significantly enhances prediction accuracy, reducing the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 49.1%, 56.1%, 11.2%, and 14.5%, respectively, compared to a BLSTM model trained on non-integrated data. Further feature analysis reveals that historical futures prices, market sentiment indices, and remote sensing vegetation features all contribute to the prediction. This study offers novel insights for analyzing agricultural financial derivatives and provides an empirical reference for applying multimodal data in financial modeling.

     

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