基于协同过滤算法的个性化学业表现预测与实践研究

Predicting personalized academic performance by collaborative filtering algorithm

  • 摘要: 随着教育数字化的持续改革与发展,大规模学习过程与学业表现数据得以留存,为支撑智慧教育、推进教育从同质化到个性化转变提供了数据基础.如何基于学业数据开展基于人机交互的个体学情精准诊断,提供适合个体的学习资源,提升终身学习的效率和效果,成为数智化教育领域的全新挑战.本文从“学生-题目”得分的二维矩阵数据出发,采用基于用户的协同过滤推荐算法,构建了能够评估学生学业表现的预测方法,通过分析学生在目标题目的预测得分与实际得分的误差评估了该方法的预测准确度,并探讨了该方法的稳健性.研究结果表明,提高相似度阈值能够提升对学生常规考试水平的预测准确度,但会弱化对学生异常发挥的预测效果;样本规模在多学科学业预测中表现出较高的稳健性.在终身学习、全球互联的背景下,本文的研究为教师掌握学生薄弱知识点、学生实现个性化学习提供了有效的推荐技术支撑,为教师教学管理系统和学生在线学习系统等智能教育系统的功能优化和发展提供了可靠的实践指导.

     

    Abstract: In the era of digital intelligence, large-scale educational data has been retained. These digital resources make personalized education feasible. It is challenging to evaluate individual student ability precisely from the vast data by program, and to provide proper exercises to make the learning process effective and sustainable. In this paper, the score data of each student on each question were subject to analysis by a collaborative filtering recommendation algorithm to predict student academic scores. Accuracy of prediction was evaluated after comparison of predicted scores and actual scores. Robustness of prediction was assessed after examination of crucial parameters. Threshold of similarity was found a key factor for prediction accuracy. But high threshold weakened prediction performance for abnormal cases. Sample size exhibited strong robustness for multi-subject academic performance prediction. Keeping lifelong learning and international perspective in mind, our findings provide an applicable method for prediction, which is crucial for personalized learning and development of intelligent educational system.

     

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