卫星重力对广东省陆地水储量的时空变化监测及其驱动因素分析

Monitoring spatio-temporal changes of terrestrial water storage in Guangdong province based on satellite gravity and analyzing its driving factors

  • 摘要: 水资源是维系生态系统与经济发展的核心要素,近年来国家积极开展水资源基础调查,为区域水资源管理收集基础水文信息.鉴于此,本文综合利用GRACE/GRACE-FO、GLDAS与实测地下水资料,探讨了2002年4月至2024年12月广东省陆地水、地表水、地下水储量的时空变化,并结合降水、温度、潜在蒸散及用水量等数据分析了区域水储量变化的驱动因素.结果表明:广东省陆地水储量在东部与北部盈余,其整体变化速率达到0.19±0.09 cm·a−1,且与水资源公报数据相对变化率的吻合度达到72.4%;而地下水储蓄功能则因开采压力在中部与西部受限,其与实测地下水位变化的相关系数为0.73.驱动因素分析显示,水储量变化与气象因素的关联程度从高到低依次为降水、潜在蒸散与气温,且与用水量呈负相关;在极端旱涝事件监测方面,干旱指数GRACE-DSI与标准化降水指数SPI对区域干旱与洪涝事件的识别吻合度分别达51.9%与62.5%,且有效反映出水资源公报记录的丰枯水年份类型.相关结果可为全省水资源调查提供大尺度范围的数据参考.

     

    Abstract: Water resource is the core element for maintaining ecosystems and economic development. In recent years, China has actively carried out fundamental surveys of water resources to collect baseline hydrological data for regional water management. In this context, this study integrates GRACE/GRACE-FO, GLDAS and measured groundwater data to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of terrestrial water storage (TWSA), surface water storage (SWSA), and groundwater storage (GWSA) in Guangdong province from April 2002 to December 2024. Additionally, this study analysis driving factors of changes of regional water storage using precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and water consumption data. The results demonstrate that: In Guangdong province, TWSA shows surpluses in its eastern and northern regions, with an overall rate of change of 0.19±0.09 cm·a−1 and a consistency of 72.4% in relative change rates compared to the water resource bulletin data. GWSA saving function in the central and western regions limited by exploitation, and the correlation coefficient between GWSA and measured groundwater changes reached 0.73. The driver analysis revealed that terrestrial water storage changes correlated with meteorological factors in descending order of correlation strength: precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature, while exhibiting a negative correlation with water consumption. Regarding extreme drought and flood events monitoring, the drought index GRACE-DSI and standardized precipitation index (SPI) reach 51.9% and 62.5% agreement for identifying regional drought and flood events respectively, and effectively reflected the types of wet and dry years recorded in the water resource bulletin. The findings provide large-scale data references for fundamental surveys of water resources in Guangdong province.

     

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