迈向时空均衡:赣江绿色流域水平动态演化与多因子驱动

Toward spatiotemporal equilibrium: dynamic evolution and multi-factor driving mechanisms of the green watershed level in the Ganjiang River basin

  • 摘要: 全球变暖与生态退化叠加下,构建“智简高效”的绿色流域评估体系已成为可持续发展核心议题.本研究以赣江流域为例,构建了一个涵盖“时序-空间-时空”三维的分析框架.首先,基于AHP-EWM组合赋权法构建综合指数,对2003-2022年江西省11地市的绿色流域水平进行测度;进而,综合运用趋势检验、空间自相关与收敛性分析,揭示了GWL的时空演变特征;最后,采用时空地理加权回归模型,辨识了“人-水-能-碳-绿-城”多维因子的驱动机制.结果表明:时序上,GWL持续上升且无突变,2016年起由缓慢增长进入快速增长阶段;空间上,呈南高北低,局部以“高-低”“低-高”聚类为主,区域差异呈“N”型下降,空间不均衡收敛;时空上,GWL重心向西南迁移,分布先聚后散,11市GWL由2003年4市中值7市低值至2020年全域进入0.6-0.8高值区间,σαβ三重收敛证明11市GWL正迈向时空均衡;驱动机制上,六要素边际效应相继越顶衰减:人口与碳生产力先后由正转负,水、森林边际红利迅速缩减,能源正向效应扩散放缓,城镇化效应已过拐点趋零.研究结论可为赣江绿色流域高质量建设提供历史借鉴与精准施策依据,也为其他省份构建绿色流域提供方法论参考.

     

    Abstract: Under the dual pressures of global warming and ecological degradation, establishing an “intelligent, streamlined, and efficient” green watershed assessment system has become a core issue for sustainable development. Taking the Ganjiang River basin as a case study, this paper proposes a three-dimensional, nine-level framework integrating “temporal - spatial - spatiotemporal” dimensions. It couples AHP-EWM, M-K trend and abrupt change tests, piecewise linear fitting, Moran’s I, LISA clustering, Dagum Gini, standard deviation ellipses, and triple convergence tests (σ /α /β) to comprehensively measure the Green Watershed Level (GWL) across 11 cities in Jiangxi Province from 2003 to 2022. The GTWR analysis reveals the driving patterns of six factors: human-water-energy-carbon-green-urban. Results indicate: Temporally, GWL exhibits sustained growth without abrupt changes, transitioning from slow to rapid growth since 2016. Spatially, GWL shows higher values in the south and lower in the north, with predominant “high-low” and “low-high” local clusters. Regional disparities decline in an “N”-shaped pattern, reflecting spatially unbalanced convergence. In spatiotemporal coupling, the GWL center of gravity shifted southwestward, with distribution patterns evolving from clustering to dispersion. The GWL of the 11 cities progressed from a median value in 4 cities and a low value in 7 cities in 2003 to a high-value range of 0.6–0.8 across all regions by 2020. Triple convergence of σ, α, and β confirms that the GWL of the 11 cities is moving toward spatiotemporal equilibrium. Regarding driving mechanisms, the marginal effects of six factors successively peaked and declined: population and carbon productivity shifted from positive to negative, water and forest marginal dividends rapidly diminished, the positive effect of energy expanded at a slower pace, and the urbanization effect passed its inflection point and approached zero. These findings provide historical references and precise policy guidance for the high-quality development of the Ganjiang Green Basin, while also offering methodological insights for other provinces in establishing green basins.

     

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