基于多头长短期记忆网络的土壤水分预测模型研究以青海湖流域天峻县为例

Research on soil moisture prediction model based on multihead LSTM:a case study in Tianjun county in the Qinghai Lake basin

  • 摘要: 土壤水分在区域水循环和能量循环中发挥着重要作用,其动态变化信息对水资源管理、农业生产等领域的研究具有重要意义.本文基于青海湖流域天峻高密度土壤水分和冻融监测传感器网络中无缺失值的27号站点数据集,使用多头长短期记忆网络(multihead long short-term memory network,multihead LSTM),输入土壤水分、土壤电导率和土壤温度3种土壤参数及其滑动变异系数,在5、10和30 cm 这3个土壤深度分别建立土壤水分深度学习预测模型,利用该模型预测了该站点1、7和30 d后的土壤水分.本研究构建的3种深度土壤水分预测模型的决定系数R2均值为0.90,均方根误差RMSE均值为0.031,平均绝对百分比误差MAPE均值为15.33%,表明该模型方法能够进行不同时间尺度多层土壤水分的高精度时间序列预测.

     

    Abstract: Soil moisture plays a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, and dynamic information is crucial for research on water resources management and agricultural production. Site 27 dataset with no missing values in Tianjun dense soil moisture and Freeze–Thaw monitoring network in the Qinghai Lake basin were applied to a multihead long short-term memory network (multihead LSTM). Three input soil parameters for the network were soil moisture, soil conductivity and soil temperature, with sliding coefficients of variation. Deep learning prediction models for soil moisture were established at soil depth of 5, 10 and 30 cm to predict soil moisture after 1, 7 and 30 days. Coefficient of determination (R2) of the models averaged 0.90 under varied soil depth, with root mean square error (RMSE) at 0.031 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) at 15.33% in average. This work therefore performed high-precision time series prediction of multi-layer soil moisture on varied time scales.

     

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