珠三角城市群水系连通性与城市发展协调性分析

Water system connectivity and urban development coordination in the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration

  • 摘要: 在全球气候变化与快速城市化双重胁迫下,水系连通性已成为影响区域水安全与城市可持续发展的关键因素.以高度城镇化且水系密集度高的珠三角城市群为例,本研究综合利用高分辨率遥感影像,精准提取水域空间信息,并构建了涵盖数量指标和形态指标的水系连通性综合评价体系.引入城市发展综合评价指标,采用层次分析-熵权法(AHP-EWM)确定组合权重,并运用耦合协调度模型(CCDM),定量评估了2024年珠三角水系连通性与城市发展的交互耦合与协调关系.结果表明:1)珠三角各市水系连通性空间分异显著,佛山、珠海、东莞等城市结构性优势突出,综合评价较高;2)城市发展水平呈“广深双核引领”格局,与经济发展水平高度一致;3)耦合协调分析揭示广州、佛山、东莞等地步入“中级协调”发展阶段,而江门、肇庆、惠州等边缘城市则处于“失调衰退”类型,协调发展水平相对滞后.本研究从“水-城”复合系统的视角,揭示了快速城市化地区水系结构和城市功能间的内在互馈机制,研究结果可为规划珠三角国土空间格局、保障区域水生态安全及促进人水和谐发展提供科学依据与决策支持.

     

    Abstract: Under the double pressure of global climate change and rapid urbanization, river system connectivity becomes a critical factor for regional water security and urban sustainable development. In this study high-resolution remote sensing imagery was used to extract water body data in the highly urbanized Pearl River Delta. A comprehensive assessment system is constructed for river connectivity, covering both structural and functional aspects (river network density, water surface ratio, circuitry, and node connectivity). Urban development indicators are incorporated and analytic hierarchy process-entropy weight method (AHP-EWM) is used to determine weights. Coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) is used to quantitatively evaluate interaction between river system connectivity and urban development in the region for 2024. Significant spatial variations are found in connectivity, with Foshan, Zhuhai, and Dongguan exhibiting structural advantages. Urban development is found to follow a “dual-core pattern led by Guangzhou and Shenzhen”, aligning with their economic levels. Coupling coordination analysis indicates that cities like Guangzhou, Foshan, and Dongguan are at an “intermediate coordination” stage, while peripheral cities Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, and Huizhou are in an “imbalanced decline” state. In this research we find the intrinsic feedback mechanisms between river systems and urban functions in rapidly urbanizing areas; this provides scientific support for spatial planning, water ecological security, and harmonious human-water development in the Pearl River Delta.

     

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