Abstract:
To address the issues of excessive monitoring indicators, high evaluation costs, and significant water quality heterogeneity between inflow rivers and reservoir zones in Guanting Reservoir, this study established a cooperative water environment evaluation system for inflow rivers and reservoir zones via “zoning differentiated modeling and cooperative comparative analysis”, and developed Water Quality Index-minimum (WQImin) evaluation models adapted to the reservoir zone and inflow rivers using full subset regression approach based on monthly monitoring data from 2018 to 2022, systematically revealing the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of water quality and their driving mechanisms. The results showed that: the optimal model for the reservoir zone included five variables (fluoride, chemical oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, five-day biochemical oxygen demand, and total nitrogen) with an adjusted R
2 of 0.803; while the inflow rivers model incorporated five parameters (electrical conductivity, ammonia nitrogen, dissolved oxygen, five-day biochemical oxygen demand, and total nitrogen) achieving an adjusted R
2 of 0.841. Multicollinearity diagnosis and Bland-Altman consistency analysis demonstrated good agreement between WQI
min and conventional WQI (consistency ratio >92%) with robust statistical structure, with WQI
min being more sensitive to water quality variations. The developed models could reduce monitoring indicators by 58% while maintaining evaluation accuracy. From 2018 to 2022, the reservoir zone water quality showed an overall improvement trend annually, with mean WQI
min ranging from moderate to good levels. Water quality peaked in spring (March) and reached its lowest in autumn (September). Inflow rivers maintained moderate water quality levels, where flood season dilution effects improved water quality. However, the Xiahuayuanqiao (Yanghe River) section exhibited poor stability with higher risks of water quality degradation during flood seasons due to non-point source pollution. WQI
min in the reservoir zone was significantly higher than that in inflow rivers, indicating the reservoir's self-purification and dilution capacity for nitrogen pollutants. The cooperative evaluation system and WQI
min models constructed in this study can provide methodological support for efficient water quality monitoring and precise management of Guanting Reservoir and similar large reservoirs in semi-humid regions of northern China.