城市洪涝过程:半分布式水箱模型与河道洪水模拟

Urban pluvial flooding process: semi-distributed tank model and river flood simulation

  • 摘要: 为解析城市上游流域降雨径流与河道洪水演进的2个子过程,采用半分布式水文模型FLOWS-Tank并结合机制驱动与数据驱动的方法,以福州八一水库与斗顶水库所在小流域及晋安河主干道为例,分析了FLOWS-Tank模型参数敏感性与河道洪水模拟效果.结果表明:1)FLOWS-Tank大部分参数具有较低敏感性;2)对纳什效率系数(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient,NSEC)和均方根误差(root mean squared error,RMSE),模型参数侧孔高度7和汇流参数(非线性水库2)在一阶敏感度和总敏感度下呈现较强的敏感性;3)五四站水位模拟得到均方误差(mean squared error,MSE)为0.001,平均绝对误差(mean absolute error,MAE)为0.012,均方对数误差(mean squared log error,MSLE)为0.000 7,RMSE为0.033.FLOWS-Tank模型对于八一水库和斗顶水库2个流域模拟效果较好,总径流量随重现期增大而逐渐增加;耦合长短期记忆神经网络与生成对抗网络(generative advevsarial nets, GANs)对河道洪水模拟具有较好的适用性.

     

    Abstract: To analyze two sub-processes (rainfall-runoff in upstream urban watersheds and river flood evolution), semi-distributed hydrological model of FLOWS-Tank combining both mechanism-driven and data-driven approaches was applied to the small watersheds of Bayi and Douding reservoirs in Fuzhou, and the main channel of Jin’an River. Sensitivity of FLOWS-Tank model parameters and effectiveness of flood simulation in the river channel were studied. Most parameters of the FLOWS-Tank model were found to exhibit low sensitivity. For the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSEC) and root mean squared error(RMSE), the model parameters of side orifice height 7 and confluence parameters (nonlinear reservoir 2) showed strong sensitivity in both first-order and total sensitivity analysis. Water level simulation at the Wusi station achieved an mean squared error(MSE) of 0.001, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.012, mean squared log error (MSLE) of 0.0007, and RMSE of 0.033. The FLOWS-Tank model demonstrated good simulation performance for the Bayi and Douding reservoir catchments, with total runoff increasing gradually as return period increased. In addition, coupling of long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks and generative adversarial networks (GANs) proved to be well-suited for river flood simulation.

     

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