张佳怡, 伦玉蕊, 刘浏, 刘宇轩, 李鑫, 徐宗学. CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(1): 77-89. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021114
引用本文: 张佳怡, 伦玉蕊, 刘浏, 刘宇轩, 李鑫, 徐宗学. CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 58(1): 77-89. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021114
ZHANG Jiayi, LUN Yurui, LIU Liu, LIU Yuxuan, LI Xin, XU Zongxue. CMIP6 evaluation and projection of climate change in Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2022, 58(1): 77-89. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021114
Citation: ZHANG Jiayi, LUN Yurui, LIU Liu, LIU Yuxuan, LI Xin, XU Zongxue. CMIP6 evaluation and projection of climate change in Tibetan Plateau[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2022, 58(1): 77-89. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2021114

CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估

CMIP6 evaluation and projection of climate change in Tibetan Plateau

  • 摘要: 随着CMIP6(coupled model intercomparison project phase 6)计划进行,新一代大气环流模式(general circulation model, GCM)输出结果陆续发布,及时探究在新模式新情景下青藏高原未来降水及气温的变化规律至关重要.在对CMIP6多模式进行适应性评估的基础上,运用DM(direct method)统计降尺度方法,以1979—2014年为基准期,预估青藏高原未来近期(2031—2050年)、远期(2061—2080年)在共享社会经济路径与典型浓度路径组合情景(shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, SSP)包括低强迫情景(SSP126)、中等强迫情景(SSP245)、中等至高强迫情景(SSP370)、高强迫情景(SSP585)下的降水、平均气温、最低气温、最高气温的时空演变规律.结果表明:相较于基准期,不同GCM对青藏高原未来降水的预估总体呈现增加趋势,近期降水较基准期变幅为−3%~16%,远期变幅为−1%~21%.未来平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈现一致的增温趋势,且增幅较为一致.相较于基准期,近期气温变化范围为0.9~2.3 ℃,远期气温变化范围为1.01~4.6 ℃.随着排放强度的增加,三者升温趋势愈加显著,即升温趋势由强至弱排序为SSP585、SSP370、SSP245、SSP126.此外,青藏高原气温变化在海拔高度上具有显著的依赖性,整体表现为青藏高原北部高海拔地区增温高于青藏高原东南部低海拔地区.研究结果可为揭示气候变化对高寒区水循环的影响机制提供科学依据.

     

    Abstract: With the release of general circulation model (GCM) outputs from CMIP6 (coupled model intercomparison project phase 6), it is of great importance to explore future variation characteristics of precipitation and air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which is the potential trigger and amplifier in global climate change.In this study based on the performance evaluation of CMIP6 multi-GCM over the TP, the DM (Direct Method) statistical downscaling model was developed to project climate change scenarios by taking 1979-2014, 2031-2050, and 2061-2080 as the baseline, near-term, and long-term periods respectively.Future variation patterns in precipitation, mean air temperature, minimum air temperature and maximum air temperature under four shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) were investigated.Projected future precipitation over the TP derived from different GCM under different SSP scenarios showed an overall increasing trend.Compared with the baseline period, projected near-term precipitation varied from −3% to 16%, projected long-term precipitation varied from −1% to 21%.Projected future mean, minimum and maximum air temperatures all showed a consistently rising tendency with similar increasing amplitude.Compared with the base period, projected short-term three air temperatures all increased from 0.9 to 2.3 ℃, projected long-term air temperatures all increased more significantly from 1.01 to 4.6 ℃.Further, with the increase in greenhouse gas emission concentration, warming trends indicated by three air temperatures were consistently more pronounced: SSP585 > SSP370 > SSP245 > SSP126.In addition, the temperature rising in higher altitude areas located in the northern part of TP was greater than in lower altitude areas distributed in the southeastern part, implying a significant elevation dependency of air temperature rising over the TP.These data have important implications for the impact of climate change on water cycles in alpine regions.

     

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