黄继文, 王京晶, 徐宗学, 唐清竹, 叶陈雷. 基于元胞自动机技术的城市洪涝过程模拟以济南市主城区为例[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 59(3): 425-432. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022352
引用本文: 黄继文, 王京晶, 徐宗学, 唐清竹, 叶陈雷. 基于元胞自动机技术的城市洪涝过程模拟以济南市主城区为例[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2023, 59(3): 425-432. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022352
HUANG Jiwen, WANG Jingjing, XU Zongxue, TANG Qingzhu, YE Chenlei. Simulating urban flooding/waterlogging by cellular automata technique: case of downtown Jinan[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 59(3): 425-432. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022352
Citation: HUANG Jiwen, WANG Jingjing, XU Zongxue, TANG Qingzhu, YE Chenlei. Simulating urban flooding/waterlogging by cellular automata technique: case of downtown Jinan[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2023, 59(3): 425-432. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2022352

基于元胞自动机技术的城市洪涝过程模拟以济南市主城区为例

Simulating urban flooding/waterlogging by cellular automata technique: case of downtown Jinan

  • 摘要: 以济南市主城区为研究区,构建元胞自动机CAflood模型,采用6场历史暴雨过程数据验证模型,并模拟6种不同重现期下主城区洪涝过程,评估受灾状况.结果表明:1)6场历史暴雨过程实测值与模拟值平均误差为0.044 m,表明本文构建的CAflood模型模拟效果良好,可用于济南市城市洪涝淹没模拟;2)随着重现期增大,最大淹没水深h ≤ 0.5 m的安全区域面积占比始终最大,约70%,其他各受灾状态面积均有所增加,且增长趋势先快后缓.其中>1~2 m的中度受灾区面积增速相对最高,由遭遇1 a一遇降雨时的0.97 km2增大至100 a一遇降雨时的6.15 km2,增加5.3倍;3)基于淹没深度进行洪涝风险区划,区划结果可为城市防灾减灾提供一定参考依据,但区划图中重灾区与历史洪涝灾害伤亡地点有明显差别.表明在洪涝灾害风险评估中,仅考虑洪涝模拟结果,不考虑社会因素,其结果存在一定的局限性.

     

    Abstract: Dual influences of global climate change and human activities has led to increasingly prominent urban flooding/waterlogging problems.Jinan is more vulnerable to urban flooding/waterlogging due to high terrain in the south and low terrain in the north.A meta-automata CAflood model was constructed in this work to analyze data from six historical rainstorm processes, to simulate flooding under six different return periods.The average error between measured and simulated values was found to be 0.044 m, indicating very good model performance.With increased return period, area of low risk with maximum submerged depth h of ≤ 0.5 m was found to account for a significant proportion of 70%.Area of other affected states was found to increase, and growth trend was fast at first and then became slower.Moderately affected area with 1 m < h ≤ 2 m showed the highest growth rate, increasing from 0.97 km2 at the 1-year return period to 6.15 km2 at the 100-year return period, an increase of 5.3 times.Flood risk zoning based on inundation depth provided some reference for urban disaster prevention and mitigation.Significant difference between heavy disaster area in the zoning map and historical flood disaster location was found.If only flood simulation is considered in flood risk assessment, without considering social factors, the gained results would have limitations.

     

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