冯安兰, 张强, 宋金帛, 王港, 吴文欢. 基于CMIP6的黄河流域极端降水时空特征分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023020
引用本文: 冯安兰, 张强, 宋金帛, 王港, 吴文欢. 基于CMIP6的黄河流域极端降水时空特征分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023020
FENG Anlan, ZHANG Qiang, SONG Jinbo, WANG Gang, WU Wenhuan. Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River basin based on CMIP6[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023020
Citation: FENG Anlan, ZHANG Qiang, SONG Jinbo, WANG Gang, WU Wenhuan. Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River basin based on CMIP6[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science). DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023020

基于CMIP6的黄河流域极端降水时空特征分析

Analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River basin based on CMIP6

  • 摘要: 研究了黄河流域极端降水事件过去及未来的特征,研究发现:1) 1975—2014年,空间分布上各极端降水指数呈现西北低、东南高的格局.时间变化上,除年降水量、中雨时间、5日最大降水量呈微弱的下降趋势外,其余各指数均呈上升趋势但不显著,极端降水事件较少.2) 2015—2100年,各极端降水指数呈现显著的上升趋势,各极端降水指数的多年均值在空间分布格局上与历史时期相似,排放升高,辐射力越大,极端降水指数呈现显著增加的区域面积不断扩大.在SSP1-2.6情景和SSP2-4.5情景下,黄河流域呈现显著增加的区域集中于西南部,而在SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5情景下,除西南地区外,东部大部分地区极端降水呈显著增加,除年降水量外其余各极端降水指数随着排放升高呈现显著减小趋势的区域逐渐集中于甘肃、青海2省.3) 黄河流域四季的年均降水量均呈上升趋势,不同季节均具有湿润化的发展趋势.除宁夏外,其他地区的日最大降水量和5日最大降水量2种指数在四季均呈现不同程度的上升趋势,各地区日最大降水量和5日最大降水量2种指数的最大值集中在7月份,预估未来时期黄河流域的暴雨洪涝灾害主要发生在夏季.本文研究可为黄河流域极端降水的防范提供有效依据,为黄河流域高质量发展提供科学参考.

     

    Abstract: Under the background of global warming, the risk of extreme precipitation disasters has increased, which has seriously affected people's life safety and caused a serious threat to regional economic development. The Yellow River Basin is the mother river of China. It is an important ecological barrier and economic zone. Promoting the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River basin has become China's national strategy. Therefore, we studied the past and future characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Yellow River basin. The results show that:: (1) From 1975 to 2014, all extreme precipitation indices showed decreasing trends from southeast to northwest. On the temporal scale, except for Annual total wet-day precipitation, Number of heavy precipitation days and Max 5-day precipitation amount, other extreme precipitation indices showed increasing trends but are not significant. There are few extreme precipitation events; (2) From 2015 to 2100, the extreme precipitation index showed a significant upward trend, and the spatial distribution pattern of the multi-annual mean value of the extreme precipitation index was similar to that of the historical period. With the increase of emission, the greater the radiation force, the area of the extreme precipitation index showed a significant increase continued to expand. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, the area of the Yellow River Basin with a significant increase was concentrated in the southwest, while under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the extreme precipitation in most of the eastern region except the southwest region showed a significant increase. In addition to annual precipitation, the other extreme precipitation index showed a significant decreasing trend with the increase of emission, which gradually concentrated in Gansu and Qinghai provinces; (3) The annual average precipitation of the Yellow River basin in four seasons shows an increasing trend, and there is a trend of wetting in different seasons. In addition to Ningxia, the two indexes of Max 1-day precipitation amount and Max 5-day precipitation amount in other regions show an increasing trend in different degrees in the four seasons. The maximum values of the two indexes of Max 1-day precipitation amount and Max 5-day precipitation amount in each region are concentrated in July. It is estimated that the rainstorm and flood disasters in the Yellow River basin in the future will mainly occur in summer. This study can provide effective basis for the prevention of extreme precipitation in the Yellow River basin and scientific reference for the high-quality development of the Yellow River basin.

     

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