窦睿音, 赵银芳, 李开宇, 焦贝贝. 黄河流域高质量发展效率耦合协调格局分异及其影响因素分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 60(1): 69-79. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023093
引用本文: 窦睿音, 赵银芳, 李开宇, 焦贝贝. 黄河流域高质量发展效率耦合协调格局分异及其影响因素分析[J]. 北京师范大学学报(自然科学版), 2024, 60(1): 69-79. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023093
DOU Ruiyin, ZHAO Yinfang, LI Kaiyu, JIAO Beibei. Pattern differentiation and influence factors of coupling and coordination of high-quality development efficiency in the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2024, 60(1): 69-79. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023093
Citation: DOU Ruiyin, ZHAO Yinfang, LI Kaiyu, JIAO Beibei. Pattern differentiation and influence factors of coupling and coordination of high-quality development efficiency in the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University(Natural Science), 2024, 60(1): 69-79. DOI: 10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023093

黄河流域高质量发展效率耦合协调格局分异及其影响因素分析

Pattern differentiation and influence factors of coupling and coordination of high-quality development efficiency in the Yellow River basin

  • 摘要: 高质量发展是中国式现代化建设的必由之路.本研究在厘清黄河流域经济、社会、生态和城市建设之间逻辑关系的基础上,构建了黄河流域多维系统的高质量发展效率评价指标体系,基于MinDS模型和耦合协调度方法测算2009—2020年不同尺度下黄河流域高质量发展效率多系统耦合协调演化,并利用Tobit模型讨论其影响因素.结果表明:1)黄河流域高质量发展效率总体缓慢上升.其中:经济高质量发展效率呈现“倒U”型发展趋势,由高到低排序为下游、中游、上游;社会高质量发展效率缓慢下降,由高到低排序为上游、下游、中游;生态高质量发展效率快速上升,由高到低排序为中游、上游、下游;城市高质量发展效率平稳波动,由高到低排序为中游、上游、下游.2)黄河流域全域、上游和中游的高质量发展效率多系统耦合协调整体属于较协调状态,下游整体属于接近协调状态.3)经济发展水平、产业结构转型、科技投入强度、科技产出水平、能源消耗强度、环境规制、对外开放程度、基础设施保障和城镇化水平等对黄河流域高质量发展效率多系统耦合协调,在不同流域段的影响表现出空间异质性.基于此,本研究提出了促进黄河流域高质量发展的对策建议.

     

    Abstract: High-quality development is key to the Chinese path to modernization. To clarify the logical relationship between economy, society, ecology and urban construction in the Yellow River basin, an evaluation index system of high-quality development efficiency with multi-dimensions is built. MinDS model and coupling coordination degree are selected to calculate multisystem coupling coordination evolution of high-quality development efficiency, in different scales from 2009 to 2020. Tobit model is used to elaborate its impact mechanism. High-quality development efficiency shows a slow upward trend in general, where high-quality economic development efficiency shows an “inverted U” development trend: downstream > midstream > upstream. The efficiency of high-quality social development declines slowly: upstream > downstream > midstream. The efficiency of high-quality ecological development rises rapidly: midstream > upstream > downstream. The efficiency of high-quality urban development fluctuates steadily: midstream > upstream > downstream. The high-quality development efficiency in the whole Yellow River basin has this pattern: upstream and midstream belongs to a relatively coordinated state, downstream as a whole is close to coordination. The impacts of economic development level, industrial structure transformation, scientific and technological input intensity, scientific and technological output level, energy consumption intensity, environmental regulation, openness, infrastructure guarantee and urbanization level, on high-quality development efficiency multisystem coupling coordination, in different river basin segments, show spatial heterogeneity. Policy recommendations are made to promote high-quality development in the Yellow River basin.

     

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