Simulation of land transfer process based on energy flow model: A case study of Taihang Mountain area in Hebei Province
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摘要: 利用河北太行山区东高昌村2016—2019年土地流转数据，运用ESL（energy system language）模型对河北太行山区土地流转前后过程进行模拟评价，基于土地利用情景和劳动力投入视角进一步模拟了土地流转后系统能量变动情况．结果表明：1）土地流转后农作物生物量、资本及生态环境相比土地流转前均有显著提升．10年后农作物生物量、资本和林地生物量分别达到土地流转前的12.97、2.10、36.54倍；50年后农作物生物量、资本和林地生物量分别达到土地流转前的15.34、4.23、39.22倍；100年后农作物生物量、资本和林地生物量分别达到土地流转前的26.79、7.39、66.60倍．2）改变种植结构的流转效果一般，但调整劳动力投入结构使土地流转后的南瓜生物量和资本呈现倒“U”型变化趋势，南瓜生物量在24年达到峰值，资本在48年达到峰值．投入当地劳动力使农作物生物量提高46.5%，资本提高212%，效果最为显著．Abstract: Aiming at the inability to effectively reveal the mechanism of energy flow in the process of land transfer, this article utilized the land transfer data of Donggaochang Village in Tai-hang Mountains of Hebei Province from 2016 to 2019, and applied the Energy System Language model to simulate and evaluate the process before and after land transfer in Tai-hang Mountains of Hebei Province, and further simulated the system energy change after land transfer based on the land use scenarios and the viewpoint of labor inputs. The energy changes of the system after land transfer were further simulated based on land use scenarios and labor input perspectives. The results showed that: (1) crop biomass, capital and ecological environment were significantly increased after land transfer compared with before land transfer; after 10 years, crop biomass, capital and forest biomass were 12.97 times, 2.10 times and 36.54 times higher than before land transfer respectively; after 50 years, crop biomass, capital and forest biomass were 15.34 times, 4.23 times and 39.22 times higher than before land transfer respectively; after 100 years, crop biomass, capital and forest biomass were 26.79 times, 7.39 times and 66.60 times higher than before land transfer respectively. (2) The effect of the transfer of changing the planting structure was general, but the adjustment of the labor input structure made the biomass and capital of pumpkin after the land transfer showed an inverted U-shaped trend, with the biomass of pumpkin reaching the peak in 24 years and the capital reaching the peak in 48 years. Inputting local labor increased crop biomass by 46.5% and capital by 212%, which was the most significant effect.
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表 1 不同土地利用情景设置
名称 情景模拟 情景1a 娃娃菜种植量每年减少5%，南瓜种植量每年增加5% 情景1b 娃娃菜种植量每年增加5%，南瓜种植量每年减少5% 情景1c 娃娃菜种植量每年减少5%，南瓜种植量每年减少5% 情景1d 娃娃菜种植量每年增加5%，南瓜种植量每年增加5% 
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表 2 劳动力投入情景设置
名称 情景模拟 情景2a 保持初始劳动力不变 情景2b 外来劳动力增加10%，当地劳动力保持不变 情景2c 外来劳动力保持不变，当地劳动力增加10% 情景2d 外来劳动力增加5%，当地劳动力增加5%
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